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Florida's Energy and Climate Change Action Plan
Chapter 5
Transportation and Land Use Sectors
Overview of Greenhouse Gas Emissions
The transportation sector is the second-largest contributor to Florida's gross greenhouse gas
(GHG) emissions. In 2005, the sector accounted for 36 percent, or about 122 million metric tons
of carbon dioxide equivalent (MMtCOze), of Florida's gross GHG emissions. Emissions from the
sector increased by 34 MMtCOze between 1990 and 2005. Transportation's share of total GHG
emissions has increased slightly over this period, accounting for about 41 percent of the state's
net growth in gross GHG emissions.
Figure 5-1 and Table 5-1 show historic and projected transportation GHG emissions by fuel and
source. As shown in the figure and table, on-road gasoline vehicles account for the largest share
of transportation emissions-about 63 percent in 2005.On-road diesel. vehicles account for
another 15 percent of emissions, and marine vessels account for roughly 12 percent. Air travel,
rail, and other sources produce the remaining emissions.
Figure 5-1. Transportation Gross GHG Emissions by Fuel, 1990-2025
200
150
8~
100
50
0
1990
..--~~-`
._
f_lnr~aaci Gasoline ^C-nraacl Diesel
Jet Fu~IfAv. Gas ~_ Baats anti Shims - Ports;lnsli~}re
Boats arxf Shii3s - t~~ffshore ~ Raif
f-lthar
1995 2000 2009 2010 2015 2020 2025
Source: Florida Inventory and Reference Case Projection, October 2008.
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Table 5-1. Historic and Projected Gross GHG Emissions from Transportation (MMtC02e)
Source 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025
t~nr~aadGasolir,~ ,>n,,~ C'_.-t~3 i>..~.-t 7r.2? R,~?••?~i 101.~.. i':1'3ii 1~_.~;c
f,'.i.0i'1i_fiBS ? ~ .~ ?
4~+
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' r-~• T. iv 1?.+fJ p
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?. i. +iC~ 7fj. ~l^ {
^•~.CS' s~n Ali .'5.~...f~
N,P.?'''~`-i~i~n' ;.~~ll:~..rifv!i~~~: ,.~-~+ 1~'.Q. ~.+J4 1.i+~' t ~~l L.+l~ L.,!tJ ~.G1
r~C7:f_.."CVC~t=S ~~.+J:) i.~..'~' i~.: , ~.1. ~~ i~ +l.:fr ~'. Sri Ll.l~i
Gr,*c:arj Gle$el J ? ~ 1 .I_Ii 1°...~ 1c.'~'"_ L:?.~~~ ?Y.~'.? ?-j.?.? i~`•! J
AiliQ/'.~.1~~:Cf". rl,~? i;.,~? ~1.;(a ".~'~ i:.2. 11. J1t J.-. t7. F-•
i_1~~'''it-~Jli~4`T"':CK:_ v'r~ U.+32 +J.74 1.+11 ~_ .$~ L.•^+J ~.CJ
NE~:,!'/'~`-L4tf" T~..,":;i ,,%4.t;SF~ 1.+1 ~ 't7 '9 -'-=!J . 7f1 ~ . 512 L6... ?' ~. .fir.. '~
,.mot Fi.IcI;A~::ttC.l t=~~ '?.22 1'.:il I~.,_,g , ,?>, 11.?il _.?' 13.r,? 1.'~`G
Ei.at_; ar,~ Shipp, - F'vrts:lnshc'r~ ? I:. ~.~:i7 ~=~...: G.f, t 4.i;=' ,_.-' ~ ,~.~' .~.
Brats ;tltd Ships - ~ifs''1c,l-e •? $° ,~.8;'i ?.:2 : ~.8c' :2' i:~.?~ 3 6.5+% ~ .3~:~
Hall iL31 ';•~;. l'i.~8 o.r~; C. ~~ C~.~~,u p.='r ~~- -
(~)tl?C~"r - ~ ~ °•:1 L{. i7 .:.-1 ' I L~ is ..'.-I 1 ~.3} IL~~, 'J.=t •[~
Total 8; .62 95.76 110.'18 121.84 139.19 159.13 179.37 200.26
Source: Florida Inventory and Reference Case Projection, October 2008.
As a result of Florida's population and economic growth and an increase in total vehicle miles
traveled (VMT), on-road gasoline consumption grew by 44 percent between 1990 and 2005.
Meanwhile, on-road diesel use rose by 88 percent during that period, suggesting an even more
rapid growth in freight movement within or across the state boundaries.ln the absence of
significant increases in vehicle fuel economy, on-road gasoline and diesel emissions are
expected to continue to grow at roughly historical rates through 2025. Total transportation
emissions are projected to grow by 64 percent, or 78 MMtCOze, between 2005 and 2025.
The U.S. Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 contains a provision to increase the
corporate average fuel economy (CAFE) of light-duty vehicles (passenger cars and light trucks)
to 35 miles per gallon by 2020. The Inventory and Projections report does not include the CAFE
or biofuels provisions (or any other provisions) of the Energy Independence and Security Act of
2007. Increases in vehicle fuel economy resulting from this Act will lead to reduced carbon
dioxide (COz) emissions from on-road vehicles. The effect of the new CAFE standards was
accounted for in the estimates of GHG reductions from the various Transportation and Land
Use (TLU) sector policy recommendations from the Technical Working Group discussed below.
Key Challenges and Opportunities
Florida has substantial opportunities to reduce GHG emissions from transportation sources.
The principal means to reduce GHG emissions in TLU are:
• Improving vehicle fuel efficiency;
• Substituting gasoline and diesel with lower-emission fuels; and
• Reducing total VMT.
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In Florida and in the nation as a whole, vehicle fuel efficiency has improved. little since the late
1980s, yet many studies have documented the potential for substantial. increases in efficiency
while maintaining vehicle size and performance. Automobile manufacturers typically oppose
dramatic increases in fuel economy. Key points of contention include the cost to manufacturers
and the cost to consumers. Even with the adoption of the new federal CAFE requirements, there
still may be opportunities for further increases in fuel efficiency while maintaining vehicle size
and performance.
The use of fuels with lower per-mile GHG emissions could achieve larger market penetration in
Florida. Conventional gasoline- and diesel-fired vehicles can use low-level blends of biofuels.
Alternative-technology vehicles can also use higher-level blends, as well as other types of
alternative fuels, such as natural gas and hydrogen. The type of fuel used is a crucial
determinant of impact on GHG emissions, as some alternative fuels have relatively little GHG
benefit. Alternative fuels from biomass, cellulosic residues, and energy crops have been
identified by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the U.S. Department of Energy
(US DOE) as the best near-term opportunity to reduce oil dependence and GHG emissions.
Key determinants of the possible impact to GHG emissions will be the development and.
deployment of fuel types. At present, fuel distribution infrastructure is a constraining factor.
Existing federal legislation and the 2006 Florida Energy Act provide incentives in the form of
corporate income tax credits and sales tax credits for investments in the production, storage,
and distribution of biodiesel and ethanol. However, the Florida tax credits "sunset" on June 3U,
2010, and are subject to relatively low statewide caps on the amount of credits allowable.
Reducing VMT is crucial to mitigating GHG emissions from the transportation sector..
Developing smarter land-use anal transportation development patterns that reduce trip length
and support transit, ridesharing, biking, anal walking can contribute substantially to this goal. A
variety of pricing policies and incentive packages can also help to reduce VMT. Developing
better planning methods and regulations, and increasing funding of multiple modes of
transportation, will be key components in achieving these goals.
Overview of Policy Recommendations and Estimated Impacts
The Florida Governor's Action Team on Energy and Climate Change (Action Team)
recommends a set of seven policies for the TLU sector that offer the potential for major
economic benefits and emission decreases. Implementing these policy recommendations could
lead to emission reductions of:
12.73 MMtCO~e annual reductions in 2025, and
57.53 MMtCO~e cumulative savings from 2009 through 2025.
The weighted-average cost of the recommended policies is -$86/MtCO~e, for the policies where
cost was quantified. This average value includes policies where individual cost-effectiveness
ranges from a net savings of about $142/MtCOze to a cost of $2/MtCOze. The estimated impacts
of the individual polices are shown. in Table 5-2.
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The policies recommended by the Action Team are described briefly here and in more detail in
Appendix C of this report. As stated earlier, the recommendations n.ot only could result in
significant GHG emission reductions, but offer a host of additional benefits as well. These
benefits include reduced local air pollution, more livable/healthier communities, and economic
development and job growth from in-state biofuels production. To yield the levels of savings
described here, the recommended policies need to be implemented in a timely, aggressive, and
thorough manner.
Low-GHG fuels (TLU-1) and improved transportation system management (TLU-4) are
important components of the recommended policies. Transportation. fuel. providers would need.
to undertake changes in their production and distribution methods in order to achieve the goals
set out in TLU-1. There is feasibility issues associated with transporting large volumes of
biofuels to and within the state, as well as distributing biofuels to consumers. For example,
ethanol has historically not been moved in the pipeline network used to transport gasoline and
diesel fuel. The pipeline industry is currently in the process of adapting technology for pipeline
distribution of ethanol. To achieve the goals of TLU-1, the challenges of production and
distribution of low-GHG fuels will need to be addressed through. this and other means.
TLU-4, taken in concert with other aggressive transportation and land use policy actions, could
result in significant reductions to VMT on the order of 7-10 percent in urban areas by 2020.
Vehicle hours of travel (VHT) can be reduced by amounts that are associated with these VMT
reductions. VHT reduction is recognized as a means of reducing driver delay while reducing
fuel consumption in congested traffic.
Several other policies would work with TLU-4, and with each other, to further reduce VMT by
increasing the viability of multiple modes of travel and providing incentives to use modes other
than single-occupant vehicles (SOVs); these are Smart Growth Planning (TLU-3), and Increasing
Choices in Modes of Transportation and Factoring GHG Emissions into TLU Planning Processes
(TLU-5 & 6). Smart-growth policies are being considered and implemented around the country
in a wide range of communities. Because most policies are deregulatory in nature, this
significantly lowers political barriers. However, these policies will face several challenges. They
require closer coordination between state government, local government, and businesses in
many cases. The availability of funding for the provision of additional transit services is
uncertain. Also, patterns of development are subject to economic cycles and many private
investment decisions. Yet implementation of these policies i.s essential to make travel by
walking, biking, and transit more feasible. Together. these policies address the built
environment, transportation infrastructure, and the behavior. of individuals to reduce per capita
VMT.
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Table 5-2. Summary of TLU Policy Recommendations
GHG Reducti ons Energy
(MMtCOze) Security
N
t Fuel
e
Present Cost- Savings
Policy
No
Policy Recommendation
Total
Value Effective
.Hess (Gallons
Saved Level of
Support
.
2017
2025
2009- 2009-2025 ($ItCOze)
2009-
2025 (Million $) 2025)
(million
gallons)
LU-1 evelop and Expand Low-GHG 6.20 12.62 106.41 -$15,161 -$142 37,290 Approved
Fuels
LU-2 o`N Rolling Resistance Tires and 0.80 1.84 13.99 -$1,259 -$90 1,665 Approved
they Add-On Technologies
TLU-3 Smart Growth Planning Not Quantified Separately;
A roved
pp
Included in Other Analyses
LU-4 Improving Transportation System 3.94 6.98 63.91 -$5,106 -$80 7,858 Approved
anagement (TSM)
and Use Planning Processes and
LU- Increasing Choices in Modes of 1.77 3.54 28.29 NQ NQ 3,200 Approved
&6 ransportation
LU-7 Incentive Programs for Increased 0.84 1.56 13.14 NQ NO 1,564 Approved
ehicle Fleet Efficiency
LU-8 Increasing Freight Movement 0.59 1.10 11.52 $21 $2 1,302 Approved
Efficiencies
ector Totals 14.14 27.64 237.26 -$21,505 -$91 52,879
ector Total After Adjusting for 12.73 25.14 214.35 -$18,400 -$86 48,786
verlaps
eductions from Recent Actions 17.68 32.39 284.00
ector Total Plus Recent Actions 30.41 57.53 498.35
GHG =greenhouse gas; MMtCOze =million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent; $/tCOze =dollars per metric ton
of carbon dioxide equivalent.
Note: The numbering used to denote the above recommended priority policy recommendations is for reference
purposes only; it does not reflect prioritization among these important recommended policies.
Florida is currently pursuing adoption of the California Clean Car standards which would
increase fuel economy standards beyond those set by the new Federal CAFE standards. Because
these standards are a part of the Florida Department of Environmental Protection (DEP)
rulemaking process, they are not included as one of the TLU policy recommendations. The
Clean Car standards must clear several hurdles before Florida or any other state can adopt
them, including U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) approval of the original
California Clean Car standards (that other states can then opt into). If for any reason the Florida
Department of Environmental Protection (DEP) is not able to implement the Clean Car
standards, other technology-based policy recommendations could play a larger role. For
example, Incentive Programs for Increased Vehicle Fleet Efficiency (TLU-7) encourages
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consumers to buy the most efficient vehicles available on the market. L,ow Rolling Resistance
Tires and Other Add-On Technologies (TLU-2) can improve vehicle fuel economy through
vehicle operation and maintenance practices. Other policies, such as Increasing Freight
Movement Efficiencies (TLU-8), can promote technological improvements in the heavy-duty
vehicle fleet.
Transportation and Land Use Policy Descriptions
The policy recommendations described briefly here could not only result in significant GHG
emission reductions and cost savings but also offer a host of additional benefits, such as
reduced local air pollution; more livable/healthier communities; and increased transportation
choices. Appendix C of this report discusses these policies in more detail.
TLU-1. Develop and .Expand Low-GHG Fuels
This recommendation seeks to reduce GHG emissions by decreasing the carbon intensity of
vehicle fuels sold in Florida. Alow-carbon fuel standard would require all fuel providers in
Florida to ensure that the mix of fuel they sell into the Florida market meets, on average, a
declining standard for GHG emissions measured in carbon dioxide equivalent (CChe) per unit
of fuel energy. The state should develop, with industry and stakeholder input, a set of
standards for low-carbon fuels, which include biodiesel, cellulosic ethanol, hydrogen,
compressed natural gas, liquefied petroleum gas, electricity, and low-carbon ethanol blends
such as E10 or E85. The standard would be measured on a life cycle basis in order to include all
emissions from fuel production to consumption.
Fuel providers (defined as refiners, importers, and blenders of on-road vehicle fuels) will need
to report on an annual basis that the fuel mixtures they provide to the market meet the low-
carbon fuel standard. Fuel retailers should be encouraged to provide this information to
consumers at the point of sale to the extent information is available.
TLU-2. Low Rolling Resistance Tires and Other Add-On Technologies
The goal of this policy is to improve the fuel economy of the light-duty vehicle (LDV) fleet by
reducing the rolling resistance of replacement tires without reducing tine lifetime or otherwise
increasing the lifecycle carbon footprint of the tires. There are three avenues by which the
rolling resistance of tires may be reduced, and fuel economy improved as a result:
Consumers could purchase more tires currently available that have lower rolling
resistance.
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Tire designs could be modified and new technologies could. be introduced to reduce
rolling resistance.
Vehicle operations could be improved, especially through improved maintenance of fire
inflation.
Currently, fire manufacturers and retailers are not required to provide information about the
fuel efficiency of replacement tires. In addition, there is no current minimum standard for fuel
efficiency that all replacement tires must meet. State policy and action ca.n help bridge this gap
through a variety of mechanisms. The state could set minimum energy efficiency standards for
replacement tires and require that greater. information about Low Rolling Resistance
replacement tires be made available to consumers at the point of sale. Information also can be
provided to consumers about fuel efficiency and cost in relation to the purchase, maintenance,
and operation of their vehicles. The state could encourage or provide information about
complementary add-on technologies that could facilitate vehicle operation practices which
improve fuel efficiency. One example is devices such as the Air Alert Valve Caps, which alert
vehicle owners when fire pressure is too low.
TLU-3. - Smart-Growth Planning
Smart-growth planning looks at how land use planning, site planning, and urban. design at the
community level can help achieve carbon and GHG emission reduction goals. The essence and
intention of smart growth within the context of climate change is to establish a policy
framework, clear guidelines, and measurement parameters for the development of new (and the
redevelopment of older) communities that will have anet-zero-carbon effect on the general
environment and reduce overall GHG emissions. This can be accomplished through the
complex interactions of the three primary elements of community development that have a
direct impact on GHG emissions and affect climate change:
• Construction energy and building lifetime energy use as measured by the protocols of
Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEEDT^') Green Building Rating
System, Green Globes, or the Florida Green Building Coalition (FGBC);
Individual VMT generation and other transportation energy use (such as deliveries,
maintenance, buses, security, health, fire, and safety) necessary to support human
communities; and
The changing of land uses from carbon-sequestering land uses (such as forests,
agriculture, parks, and wetlands) to carbon-releasing land uses (such as building sites
and roadways) and development patterns.
This policy awns to bring about reductions in. GHG emissions through smart-growth planning.
The state could achieve this by providing incentives and promoting redevelopment projects that
establish more energy-efficient land use patterns. Any redevelopment project should consider
the 10 principles of smart-growth in land use planningl. The 10 principles are as follows:
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1) Create a range of housing opportunities and. choices;
2) Create walkable neighborhoods and communities;
3) Encourage community and stakeholder collaboration and cooperation;
4) Forster distinctive and attractive communities with a strong sense of place;
5) Make development decisions that are predictable, fair, and cost-effective;
6) Mix the land use;
7) Preserve open space, farmland, natural beauty, and critical. environment areas;
8) Provide a variety of transportation choices;
9) Strengthen and direct development toward existing communities; and
10) Take advantage of compact building design.
The state also could maximize opportunities to retrofit existing buildings to meet LEED, Green
Globes, FGBC, or other approved certification programs that reduce energy consumption and
thus reduce GHG emissions.
~ Smart Growth Online. http//www.sinartgrowth.org
TLU-4. Improving Transportation System Management (TSM)
Transportation System Management (TSM) is the concept of pairing transportation demand
with transportation supply to help transportation networks serve the demand in an effective
and efficient manner. Effective system management may utilize a variety of strategies based on
advanced technologies, market-based incentives, regulations, and design standards. Each
strategy provides a relatively small benefit to GHG reduction, but when applied in concert,
substantial gains can be achieved.
TSM strategies attempt to reduce the number of trips being taken by SOVs, shorten trip lengths,
reduce vehicle delay, increase the reliability of the transportation network, and reduce idling
and other transportation actions that result in increased GHG emissions. The goal of TSM is to
reduce the daily VMT per capita on the transportation network. Effective TSM also will reduce
VHT per capita, which measures the amount of trafFic congestion delay. Reduction of either
VMT or VHT is highly correlated with a reduction in GHG emission.
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The state could develop and implement a variety of policies and. strategies to reduce GHG
emissions through TSM. These policies and strategies could include program funding, financial
and development incentives, infrastructure investment, and regulatory requirements to
promote transportation system management improvements that result in reduced VMT and/or
VHT which, in turn, result in reduced GHG emissions. These actions, taken in concert with
other aggressive transportation and land use policy actions, should be designed to reduce urban
area VMT by 7-10 percent by 2020 and by 9 -12 percent by 2050; VHT can be reduced by
amounts that are associated with these VMT reductions. VHT reduction is recognized as a
means of reducing driver delay while reducing fuel consumption in congested traffic.
TLU-5 &6. Land Use Planning Processes and Increasing Choices in Modes of
Transportation
TLU 5 & 6 were combined by the Action Team after it was determined that it was difficult to
accurately quantify and compare the cost per ton of COQ reductions of transit and rail versus
other modes of transportation. The Action Teain expressed concern that this quantification
might discourage the selection of transit and/or rail as a strategy for the reduction of GHG
emissions. The Action Team concluded. that transit and. rail are important GHG reduction
strategies that should be implemented despite high infrastructure costs. This policy seeks to
ensure that local and state land use and transportation planning consider the impact of land use
and transportation decisions on the reduction of GHG emissions. This policy also aims to
double transit ridership; to increase the percentage of people that walk, bicycle, carpool,
vanpool, or telecommute; and to develop and implement policies and strategies that include
program funding and financial incentives that expand non-automobile infrastructure and
provide modal alternatives to SOV travel.
TLU-7. Incentive Programs for Increased Vehicle Fleet Efficiency
Florida can reduce its GHG emissions by improving the fuel economy of the LDV fleet. This
recommendation includes several policies and programs to encourage the purchase of low-
GHG-emission vehicles through monetary and convenience rewards and incentives throughout
the state:
• Tax credits for efficient vehicles.
• Incentive programs for major. corporate fleet owners, including rental car and taxi
cab companies.
• COQ-based registration fees anal vehicle licensing fees.
• Procurement of efficient fleet vehicles (public, private, or other).
• Study of "feebates."
• Operating incentives for low-GHG vehicles.
• COz-based excise taxes.
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• COz-based product labeling.
TLU-8. Increasing Freight Movement Efficiencies
This policy recommendation aims to reduce the trucking industry's carbon footprint and GHG
emissions, while maintaining the current level of service to the state and nation, and
encouraging the development and expansion of intermodal and long-distance rail capacity to
support both local and transcontinental rail service into and. out of Florida. The U.S.
Department of Transportation's Federal Highway Administration) lists two major. categories of
emissions-reducing strategies that Florida can utilize in these goals:
• Technical strategies, which modify a piece of equipment or its fuel to reduce emissions;
and
• Operational strategies, which change how a piece of equipment is used, resulting in
lower emissions.
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