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Home My WebLink About2020 06 08 Consent 301 - Adoption of Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy • CONSENT AGENDA ITEM 301 ,n m=ared CITY COMMISSION AGENDA I JUNE 8, 2020 REGULAR MEETING 1959 TITLE Adoption of Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy SUMMARY Seminole County is threatened by a variety of natural, technological, and human caused hazards. These hazards may endanger the health and safety of the community,jeopardize its economic vitality, and threaten the quality of its environment. The public and private sectors of Seminole County have joined together to create the Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy Working Group to undertake a comprehensive planning process. This process analyzes all the hazards that affect Seminole County while developing effective mitigation measures to reduce the overall impact to the community. It is required that the County's Local Mitigation Strategy be adopted by our municipality to receive any mitigation funding in the future. The Local Mitigation Strategy is updated every five (5)years by the Seminole County Resiliency Working Group which all municipalities and the airport have a representative. RECOMMENDATION Staff recommends the City Commission review and adopt the Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy. 9 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Local Mitigation Strategy for Seminole County and its Municipalities I SM I COUNTY F[OKIDA'S NATuKAL CHOICE 2020-2025 1 10 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Contents ExecutiveSummary.............................................................................................................................................................................................................3 General................................................................................................................................................................................................................................4 Introduction...................................................................................................................................................................................................................4 Purpose..........................................................................................................................................................................................................................4 PlanningProcess.............................................................................................................................................................................................................4 ParticipatingOrganizations.......................................................................................................................................................................................5 PublicParticipation...................................................................................................................................................................................................6 UpdateProcess.........................................................................................................................................................................................................7 RiskAssessment..................................................................................................................................................................................................................9 Hazards...........................................................................................................................................................................................................................9 RelativeRisk............................................................................................................................................................................................................10 RelativeRisk Calculation/Scale................................................................................................................................................................................11 HazardAnalysis............................................................................................................................................................................................................12 Vulnerability......................................................................................................................................................................................................................73 AssessingVulnerabilities...................................................................................................................................................................................................73 RepetitiveLoss Properties............................................................................................................................................................................................73 LandUse Trends and Potential Loss.............................................................................................................................................................................75 CriticalFacilities and Infrastructure..............................................................................................................................................................................75 MitigationGoals................................................................................................................................................................................................................76 MitigationActions........................................................................................................................................................................................................76 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy Goals and Objectives....................................................................................................................................77 Addressing Known Risks and Vulnerabilities................................................................................................................................................................80 National Flood Insurance Program(NFIP)Compliance......................................................................................................................................................80 CommunityRating System................................................................................................................................................................................................81 Implementation.................................................................................................................................................................................................................81 Prioritizationof Actions................................................................................................................................................................................................81 MitigationProject Priority List...........................................................................................................................................................................................83 Responsiblefor Mitigation Actions..............................................................................................................................................................................83 Cost-Benefit Analysis....................................................................................................................................................................................................83 ActionsCompleted.......................................................................................................................................................................................................83 StrategyMaintenance.......................................................................................................................................................................................................84 LMSMonitoring and Evaluation...................................................................................................................................................................................84 LMSUpdates................................................................................................................................................................................................................84 Implementation through Existing Plans and Programs................................................................................................................................................85 Authoritiesand References...............................................................................................................................................................................................87 2 11 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Executive Summary Seminole County is threatened by a variety of natural, technological, and human-caused hazards. These hazards may endanger the health and safety of the community,jeopardize its economic vitality, and threaten the quality of its environment. The public and private sectors of Seminole County have joined together to create the Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy Working Group (LMS Working Group) to undertake a comprehensive planning process. This process analyzes all the hazards that affect Seminole County while developing effective mitigation measures to reduce the overall impact to the community. This document encompasses a multi-jurisdictional approach to hazard mitigation planning. The planning process was conducted through the coordinated and cooperative effort of several local governments including City of Altamonte Springs, City of Casselberry, City of Lake Mary, City of Longwood, City of Oviedo, City of Sanford, City of Winter Springs, and Seminole County. Seminole County's seven municipalities have formally adopted the current Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy. Upon approval of this update to the Local Mitigation Strategy a new resolution will be formally adopted. The LMS Working Group has also conducted a significant amount of research to identify the hazards threatening Seminole County in order to estimate relative risk posed to the County by those hazards. For each hazard, an impact analysis was completed which evaluated impacts to the public, property, environment, and program operations. A consequence analysis was completed that examined the potential consequences in relationship to the economy, responder safety, continuity of operations, property/facilities/infrastructure, and public confidence in the jurisdictions' governance'. The information in this document has been used by the LMS Working Group to prioritize its planning efforts to assess the vulnerabilities of the facilities and neighborhoods of Seminole County to the impacts of future disasters. Proposed projects and programs aimed at reducing the impacts of future disasters are called "mitigation initiatives" in this document. Mitigation initiatives have been developed and will continue to be developed by the LMS Working Group as new hazard research is conducted, risk levels are increased, and as resources and opportunities become available. Implementation of this strategy is essential and will continue to help make participating communities more resistant to the effects of major disasters. This strategy will continue to be updated and expanded in the future to encompass changes in characteristics of hazards, experiences with disasters, and changing conditions of participating jurisdictions. The update process and future editions of this mitigation plan will be used to continue to inform and involve the public and other interested groups to improve the overall resilience of the whole community. 12016 EMAP Standard 4.1.1/4.1.2 3 12 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) General Introduction Mitigation is any action taken to permanently reduce or eliminate the risk to people and their property from the effects of hazards. The key to successful hazard vulnerability reduction through mitigation is to implement a well-conceived planning process. The LMS Working Group was established to encourage the public, private, and non-profit sectors of the community to become more resistant to the impacts of future disasters. The LMS Working Group has been tasked with a comprehensive evaluation of the vulnerabilities of Seminole County for all-hazards in order to identify ways to make the community more resilient to the impacts of disasters. Purpose The primary purpose of the LMS is to establish an on-going process that encourages hazard mitigation as part of a daily routine for Seminole County. The LMS process encouraged Seminole County to assess its vulnerabilities to all types of hazards; identify a comprehensive list of goals, objectives, plans, programs and projects in order to decrease or eliminate the effects of the identified vulnerabilities; and then prioritize the implementation of the selected initiatives. Planning Process The LMS Working Group is comprised of all local government agencies within Seminole County, business leaders, community organizations, inter-faith groups, healthcare facilities, school board personnel and citizens. On a periodic basis, the LMS Working Group solicits the continuing involvement in mitigation planning by each jurisdiction in Seminole County. Jurisdictions are encouraged to identify agencies and organizations that should represent the jurisdiction on the LMS Working Group. Written solicitation was issued by Seminole County's Office of Emergency Management to local jurisdictions, adjacent counties, and community organizations to attend a LMS Planning Team Kick-Off Meeting on March 28, 2019. Subsequent meetings were held on April 25th,June 13th, July 25th, August 22nd, and September 11th, 2019. Organizations not directly associated with the state, regional or local governments, such as large businesses and volunteer agencies and the public are solicited on an annual basis to join the planning process, as well as through periodic public information efforts through the LMS Working Group. Organizations that respond and attend the meetings are considered to be participants in the Seminole County LMS Planning Process and requested to engage in the meetings and planning activities necessary to develop, maintain and implement the plan. An important part of the planning process is the review and research of historical events, current conditions, and current plans.These resources help to build the background for the risk assessment of each hazard and assist the planning team with updating the mitigation plan. Resources used in the planning process for this plan include: FEMA—National Flood Insurance Program and Community Rating System 4 13 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Florida Division of Emergency Management National Weather Service Seminole County Community Wildfire Protection Plan Seminole County Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan 2017 Seminole County Comprehensive Plan Seminole County Extension Services Seminole County Floodplain Management Plan Participating Organizations Participating local government agencies are registered as organizations under the appropriate jurisdiction, as are other groups, associations, districts, regions, and agencies, both public and private, which serve the jurisdiction they are headquartered in. Seminole County's multi-jurisdictional planning approach enables all interested organizations, groups, and agencies, regardless of their total number, to be directly and actively involved in the planning within a limited number of jurisdictions. Seminole County has involved seven jurisdictions defined as active participants in the planning process. The active planning participants include: City of Altamonte Springs, City of Casselberry, City of Lake Mary, City of Longwood, City of Oviedo, City of Sanford, City of Winter Springs, and Seminole County. This is an all-inclusive list for all the entities within Seminole County required to approve the LMS as a multi-jurisdictional plan. Participation will be identified by attendance and active participation in the process. However, many additional partners, agencies, and neighboring jurisdictions were invited via email to each meeting. Participating municipalities are the same jurisdictions which participated in the 2015 plan update and have been consistently active in the process since that time. This LMS Planning Team has had participation by all the entities listed below to the extent that they have attended the meetings, participated, and contributed to the update process of gathering data, or providing insight and information all in the effort to better mitigate Seminole County. Name Agency Position Lucius Cushman Citizen Citizen Rob Wolf Citizen Citizen Anthony Apfelbeck City of Altamonte Springs Director of Building & Fire Safety Mark Gisclar City of Casselberry Public Works Director Miguel Conde City of Lake Mary Assistant City Engineer Danielle Koury City of Lake Mary Engineer David Hamstra City of Longwood Pegasus Engineering Michael Peters City of Longwood Fire Chief/ Emergency Manager Jeff Buchanan City of Oviedo Fire Chief Nichlaus Dorey City of Oviedo Division Chief Michael Cash City of Sanford Planning Engineer/ Floodplain Manager 5 14 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Craig Radzak City of Sanford Fire Chief Bryant Smith City of Winter Springs Public Works Engineer Cliff Frazier Florida Forest Service Wildfire Mitigation Specialist Avi Bryan Seminole County Emergency Associate Management Aaron Funk Seminole County Emergency Operations Manager Management Alan Harris Seminole County Emergency Chief Administrator of Emergency Management Management Josh Holder Seminole County Emergency Associate Management Steven Lerner Seminole County Emergency Senior Planner Management Justin Nguyen Seminole County Emergency Associate Management Kathryn Valentine Seminole County Emergency Mitigation and Recovery Coordinator Management Marie Lackey Seminole County Public Works Watershed Management Coordinator Public Participation At the start of the planning process, the Seminole County Office of Emergency Management (OEM) requested citizen members to join the LMS Planning Team using multiple avenues. The OEM requested citizen representative suggestion from the Board of County Commissioners and also utilized social media to invite citizens to become part of the LMS Planning Team for the 2020-2025 update. Several public information activities will be undertaken to allow for public comment on the draft plan. Every LMS Planning Team meeting was posted on the Prepare Seminole online calendar of events.The LMS Working Group will hold a public meeting to solicit input from citizens in person, and advertisements for this meeting will be shared through social media, the Prepare Seminole website, and a local newspaper advertisement. For the update of this document, a link will be added to www.prepareseminole.com to continue to allow the public to submit written input and comment for the LMS update. Comments from the public can be made through the Office of Emergency Management or directly via email to the LMS Coordinator. The final opportunity for public comment will take place at the Board of County Commissioners meeting when the plan is presented for formal adoption. Once the plan is adopted the approved plan will continue to be made available via the website for future review and comment. Public comment on the plan will continue to be encouraged on www.prepareseminole.com. In addition to seeking public comment and input to the overall planning process and the draft plan, many of the participating agencies and organizations in the LMS Working Group individually conduct efforts to inform the public about the impacts of disasters, hazard mitigation and the mitigation planning process. Upcoming community outreach efforts will focus on including the precepts of mitigation in current public information activities, and to make the public aware of this planning process, its goals and objectives, and opportunities for public input at every possible occasion. 6 15 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) The Seminole County LMS Working Group will continue efforts to develop and implement a year-round program to engage the community in the LMS planning process and to provide them with mitigation- related information and educations. These efforts will be to continually invite public comments and recommendations regarding the mitigation goals for the community,the priorities for the planning, and the unique needs of each community for mitigation-related public information. Update Process The current LMS Working Group, participants and attendees came together to update the plan to meet the federal and state LMS Plan requirements. Using the 2015 plan as a foundation, a review of every section of the Seminole County LMS was conducted and the plan was revised using the 2018 Florida Local Mitigation Strategy Crosswalk and the 2018 Florida Division of Emergency Management Local Mitigation Strategy Update Manual. During the 2019 Seminole County LMS update the following actions were taken by the LMS Working Group: A LMS revision kick-off meeting with the LMS Planning Team was conducted to confirm the list of hazards as a starting point for the update of the plan. The following sections were reviewed and updated: General Section: This section includes the plan introduction, purpose, and planning process.This section was revised to reflect the current approach and processes of the Seminole County LMS Working Group. Risk Assessment Section: This section includes the hazard analysis and assessing the vulnerabilities of Seminole County. This section was updated to reflect current documented history and outlook of the hazards that could impact Seminole County. Each section was revised to reflect updated hazard events and to reflect current vulnerabilities. The Seminole County LMS Working Group determined for continuity purposes the LMS hazards would remain consistent with the Seminole County Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan (CEMP). Mitigation Goals Section This section includes the mitigation goals, specific objectives under each goal, National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) compliance data, and the process for mitigation project implementation. Each section was revised to reflect current updated goals for the LMS, updated NFIP data, and the revised process for the implementation of the mitigation projects. Plan Maintenance Section This section includes the monitoring and evaluation process for the LMS, the update process for the LMS, and how the LMS is implemented through existing plans and procedures. This section was revised to reflect the current processes for the monitoring, evaluation, and update for the LMS. The implementation of existing plans and processes for LMS were reviewed and revised to reflect the current implementation process. LMS Working Group By-Laws Appendix 7 16 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) The LMS Working Group By-Laws were revised to reflect the current policies and guidelines of the Seminole County LMS Working Group. The draft revisions of the LMS sections that required updates were disseminated to all LMS Working Group members for review and comment. The LMS Working Group will continue to send out annual written invitations to everyone who may have a stake in the process, and will include any additional people or groups as needed and identified, as required by Florida Administrative Rule 27P-22. 8 17 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Risk Assessment Hazards The technical planning process begins with hazard identification. In this process,the LMS Planning Team and representatives of individual jurisdictions identify all of the natural,technological and human-caused hazards that could threaten Seminole County.The following hazards were selected by the LMS Planning Team for the 2020-2025 LMS: • Agriculture (Exotic Pests and Disease) • Civil Disorder • Critical Infrastructure Disruption o Communication o Power o Utility • Cyber Security/Cyber Attack • Disease and Pandemic Outbreak • Drought and Water Shortage • Earthquakes • Extreme Heat • Financial Collapse • Fires/Wildfires • Flooding • Hazardous Materials (Fixed Site and Transportation) • Mass Gatherings/ Planned Events • Mass Migration/ Repatriation • Severe Weather o Hail o Lightning o Micro-bursts o Thunderstorms • Sinkholes/Land Subsidence • Terrorism • Tornadoes • Transportation Accident o Aircraft o Rail o Mass Casualty Incident • Tropical Cyclones o Hurricanes o Tropical Storms • Violent Acts (Non-Terrorism) • Winter Storms/ Freezes 9 18 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) As hazards are identified for Seminole County, participants can make an estimate of the relative risk each possesses to the community.This section details the natural and human-caused hazards to which Seminole County is vulnerable. The Seminole County LMS Planning Team has incorporated hazard history that was available. In the future, the LMS Planning Team will incorporate continued hazard history for inclusion in the LMS. Relative Risk Each hazard described in this section is ranked by level of relative risk based on probability and severity. These scales are defined below: Probability Scale- based on historical data this scale takes into effect the likelihood that Seminole County will be impacted by the hazard within a given period of time • O=None-Although the hazard is noted, no previous occurrence has been recorded and the hazard is considered no threat to the jurisdiction • 1=Low-Some potential for the hazard to exist once every 10 years or more • 2=Moderate- Potential for the hazard to exist once every 5-10 years • 3=High- Potential for the hazard to exist once every 1-5 years Severity Scale- based on the magnitude of the hazard and the on-going mitigation measures Magnitude Human Impact(Possibility of death or injury) • O=None- No possibility of death or injury • 1=Low-Some potential for death or injury • 2= Moderate- Potential for death or injury • 3=High- Strong potential for death or injury Property Impact(Physical losses and damages) • O=None- No possibility of physical loss and/or damage • 1=Low-Some potential for physical loss and/or damage • 2=Moderate- Potential for physical loss and/or damage • 3=High-Strong potential for physical loss and/or damage Spatial Impact(Amount of geographic area affected) • O=None- No geographic area affected • 1=Low- Up to 25%of total land mass affected • 2=Moderate- 25%-50%of total land mass affected • 3=High-50%or more of total land mass affected 10 19 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Economic Impact(Interruption of business services) • O=None- No interruption of business services • 1=Low-Some potential for business service interruption • 2=Moderate- Potential for business service interruption • 3=High- Strong potential for business service interruption Mitigation Preparedness(Specialized Plans) • O=None-N/A • 1=High-Specific plan dedicated to this hazard • 2=Moderate- Hazard is addressed in other plans • 3=Low- No specific plan for hazard Training and Exercising(Multi-year Training and Exercise Planning) • O=None- No training or exercising on this hazard • 1=High-Yearly training and exercising • 2=Moderate-Training and exercising completed every other year • 3=Low- Rarely trained or exercised Logistics(Availability of specialized equipment,teams or support) • O=None- No specialized equipment,teams, or support • 1=High- Highly specialized equipment,teams or support • 2=Moderate- Minimal specialized equipment, teams or support • 3=Low-Very few teams, equipment and support available Relative Risk Calculation/Scale Probability x (Magnitude-Mitigation) = Relative Risk Medium=31%-60% The following Hazard Analyses were developed through research of historical occurrences, input from outside agencies, and through several planning meetings involving stakeholders. Stakeholders at the plan review meetings discussed and determined the level of severity in the different impact categories, used historical knowledge to determine frequency of occurrence, and used knowledge of current operations and procedures to determine mitigation measures. After these summary sheets were developed,they were disseminated to the LMS Working Group to gather feedback and receive approval. 11 20 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Hazard Analysis Hazard: Agriculture (Exotic Pests and Diseases) Probability of Occurrence 1-5 Years Risk 17% Relative Risk Low Description Agriculture incidents in Seminole County are quite rare and historically have not caused much damage to the community. In coordination with Seminole County's Agriculture Extension Office, Emergency Management is made aware of incidents involving crops and exotic pest outbreaks that may pose a threat to the community. Diseases that may pose a threat to crops in Seminole County include Citrus Canker and Citrus Greening. Potential pests include mosquitos, toads, mice, rats, and other harmful pests. On-going crop diseases present a threat to the agriculture community in Seminole County. Cyanobacteria, also called blue-green algae, are microscopic organisms found naturally in all types of fresh or brackish water. The organisms use sunlight to make their own food. In warm, nutrient-rich (high in phosphorus and nitrogen) environments, cyanobacteria can multiply quickly, creating blooms that spread across the water's surface. The blooms might become visible. Cyanobacteria can be toxic to humans, pets, and livestock. Blooms can stay below the water's surface, or they sometimes float to the surface in warmer climate. Some cyanobacteria blooms can look like foam, scum, or mats, particularly when the wind blows them toward a shoreline. Extent Ranges from small affected area of crops, up to 34,926 acres of farmland in the County. Location Much of the agricultural foundation of Seminole County is located in the northwestern portion of the county including the Cities of Lake Mary and Sanford and the unincorporated Seminole County, but the effects of an incident may impact the entire county. Significant Occurrences (1982):The City of Longwood -toad infestation due to heavy rains (1995): Citrus Canker detected in Seminole County (1999):The City of Altamonte Springs experienced mice infestations (2007): Huanglongbing (HLB), also known as Citrus Greening, confirmed in Seminole County. Between 2008-2017, Seminole County citrus filled 157,000 boxes but declined to 29,000 boxes 12 21 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) in less than one decade. (2019): In October, Seminole County was alerted to two (2) blue- green algae blooms in residential lakes. Sampling and testing of the lakes confirmed toxins in the lake and alert signage was placed in public locations surrounding the waterbody. A reverse emergency call was placed to all of the residents in the area. Spatial extent-while the direct impacts may be less than 25%, the indirect effects of an incident could be county-wide Overall Vulnerability Overall vulnerability of Seminole County and its jurisdictions to agricultural diseases and pests is low. Although there is not a large percentage of farmland in the county, disease can spread quickly if response is not immediate.The cities of Lake Mary and Sanford and unincorporated parts of Seminole County are most vulnerable to agricultural incidents because this is the largest area of farmland countywide. Impacts/Consequences Human Moderate Impact Increased possibility of death or injury to agriculture diseases and risk to contaminated food crops. Property Low impact to critical infrastructure and property resulting in physical losses. Historically this hazard has more of an impact on crops. Exotic pests can become a nuisance to property owners in all jurisdictions in Seminole County. Environment Hazard can have broader negative impacts to local ecosystems such as habitat loss and biodiversity degradation, specifically in the unincorporated areas of Geneva and Chuluota. The 2018 National Climate Assessment reports that with a changing climate, the risk associated with disease-causing agents and parasites is expected to increase and that the risk of environmental impacts may increase over time. Economic Moderate Impact The community may experience a moderate economic loss, primarily for the farming and agriculture industry, as a result of a pest or disease outbreak. Program Operations The County Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan (CEMP) covers basic response and recovery capabilities for exotic pests and diseases that are agriculturally based. Responders Depending on the nature of the pest or disease, responders may require certain protective equipment and tools. COOP An agriculture incident would have minimal impacts on COOP Plan because this hazard would not disrupt normal procedures. 13 22 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Property/Facilities/ There would likely be little impact to critical infrastructure, but Infrastructure privately owned farmland, in unincorporated Seminole County and in the cities of Oviedo, Sanford, and Winter Springs; has the potential to be devastated. Public Confidence in the Public confidence would depend on how satisfied those Jurisdiction's Governance impacted are with the local response. Risk Reduction Through Mitigation Types of mitigation projects in the county include: • Collection and destruction of infected plant species • Diversification of agricultural landscaping • Fertilizer reduction/ordinance • Inspection and sampling species • Introduction of higher trophic level species • Invasive plant species reduction • Larvicide, adulticide, aerial spray • Prescribed burning • Public education/outreach • Sanitation with chemical control Plans Mosquito Control Procedures Rabies Procedures Florida Department of Agriculture—Statewide Citrus Canker and Citrus Greening Map (2017): N L A SEMLE . v S+R- CHRP OF.Locations .. Highways { County Lines .� -Commercial Crus production Areas `' -GWs Greening(HLB)Specimens ., -Ci..Canker N� 14 23 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Total Crops in Seminole County (2017): Crop Acres Vegetables 26 https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/AgCensus/2017/Full Report/Volume (harvested for sale) 1, Chapter 2 County Level/Florida/st12 2 0001 0001.pdf Citrus (commercial 319 https://www.nass.usda.gov/Statistics by State/Florida/Publications/Annual St acres) atistical Bulletin/2018/Blthrul3Cit-2018.pdf Orchards 664 https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/AgCensus/2017/Full Report/Volume 1, Chapter 2 County Level/Florida/st12 2 0001 0001.pdf Nurseries (stock 127 https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/AgCensus/2017/Online Resources/Co crops) unty Profiles/Florida/cp12117.pdf Pastureland 25,272 https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/AgCensus/2017/Full Report/Volume 1, Chapter 2 County Level/Florida/st12 2 0008 0008.pdf 15 24 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Hazard: Civil Disorder Probability of Occurrence 6-10 Years Risk 32% Relative Risk Medium Description Events of civil disorder are classified as armed violence, riots, protests, and threats against military or the government. The proper planning and prevention methods aid in the mitigation of civil disorder events. For threats of civil disorder utilizing armed violence, it is likely that a joint jurisdictional management of operations will take effect, coordinated at the county level between the Sheriff's Office, Florida Department of Law Enforcement(FDLE), and the Office of Emergency Management. Location Not specific to any geographic areas of Seminole County Significant Occurrences (2012): February 26—Shooting of 17 year old,Trayvon Martin in Sanford.There were public protests, school walk outs, and thousands of planned rallies across the nation.The Seminole County EOC provided support for seven weeks in the trial phase of the event. While spatial extent of the hazard would be 25%or less, civil disorder could have county-wide effects. Overall Vulnerability The overall vulnerability of civil disorder in Seminole County is low. While moderate human impact is possible, civil disorder can spread quickly and disrupt the public's confidence in the jurisdictions' governance.Although the only major past occurrence of civil unrest was in the City of Sanford, all jurisdictions of Seminole County are vulnerable to civil disorder and its effects. Impacts/Consequences Human Moderate Impact because the hazard is human in nature; tension between the public, law enforcement,judicial system, and media would be heightened. Disorder can also lead to violent acts potentially impacting the local population. Property Moderate Impact—there would be little impact in general, but protests and riots have the potential to cause localized 16 25 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) problems. Environment Very little to no impact on the environment. Economic Moderate Impact—Depending on the population involved, strikes, protests, and riots could have negative impacts to economic prosperity including employees missing work. Program Operations A joint jurisdictional management of operations will likely take effect, coordinated at the County level between the Sheriff's Office, Florida Department of Law Enforcement (FDLE), and the Office of Emergency Management. Responders Those in Law Enforcement may need additional protective equipment when responding to potentially violent incidents of disorder.There may be possible increases in crime rate. COOP There could be some impact to COOP Plan as civil unrest could lead to disruption in operations in affected areas. Property/Facilities/ Moderate impact to property, facilities, and infrastructure is Infrastructure possible caused from riots or malicious attempts to disrupt local infrastructure. Public Confidence in the Public confidence may be a significant factor in the case of civil Jurisdiction's Governance disorder. Public messaging will need to stay consistent throughout the event. Risk Reduction Through Mitigation Types of Civil Disorder mitigation projects in the county include: • Designation of peaceful protest areas • Intelligence/threat assessment for special events • Metal detector/hand held metal detector to critical facilities • Mobile field force training and exercise Security system/video surveillance for critical facilities • Permitting for special events • Public education/outreach • Tracking and incident planning for special events Plans CEMP—Civil Unrest Operational Plan 17 26 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Hazard: Critical Infrastructure Disruption (Communication, Power, Utilities) Probability of Occurrence 1-5 Years Risk 71% Relative Risk High Description Numerous facilities in Seminole County are classified as critical infrastructure. Disruption of these facilities could severely impact the economic and social wellbeing of the citizens and patrons of Seminole County.The Office of Emergency Management maintains a listing of the critical infrastructures, protected by Florida Statute 119,for Department of Homeland Security 16 critical infrastructure sectors whose assets, systems, and networks,whether physical or virtual, are considered so vital to the United States that their incapacitation or destruction would have a debilitating effect on security, national economic security, national public health or safety, or any combination thereof. Presidential Policy Directive 21 (PPD-21): Critical Infrastructure Security and Resilience advances a national policy to strengthen and maintain secure,functioning, and resilient critical infrastructure. An electromagnetic pulse (EMP) is a high-frequency burst of electromagnetic energy caused by the rapid acceleration of changed particles. An EMP event can occur naturally from a great geomagnetic storm, or it can be man-made through the use of a single, crude nuclear weapon delivered by a primitive missile, and the effects would be virtually identical. A catastrophic EMP would cause the collapse of critical infrastructure such as the power grid, telecommunications, transportation, banking, finance, food, and water systems. Location All of Seminole County Significant Occurrences Occurs fairly frequently mainly due to severe weather or in extreme cases tropical cyclones. Strong thunderstorms in the summer and storms associated with passing fronts or low pressure systems occur every year. (1989): In March, a geomagnetic storm struck the Earth, causing widespread electrical and hydro system disruptions throughout Quebec, Canada. These disruptions lasted as long as nine hours. (2003): In November, ionizing radiation from a solar flare hit Earth's atmosphere causing severe radio blackout throughout 18 27 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) North America. Spatial Extent - Impacts from a disruption could impact more than 50%of the county, but may have county-wide effects. Overall Vulnerability The overall vulnerability of Seminole County and its jurisdictions to critical infrastructure disruption is high. Because Cl disruption can be caused by many different forces, it is one of the hazards with the highest vulnerability. Severe weather, tropical cyclones, tornadoes, and geomagnetic storms are just some examples of harmful incidents that may cause Cl disruption. Disruption of critical infrastructure can include communication, power, and utilities; all of which are key components of community functions in all jurisdictions. Impacts/Consequences Human Low impact -Could cause loss of power to homes, disruption in drinking water supply, and loss of communication to the public. Property Low impact -various homes and businesses could lose electrical power. Environment Hazards such as flooding from water main breaks, pollution from damaged or malfunctioning power plants and contamination from sewage/solid waste pose threats to local ecosystems and air quality. Economic Moderate impact—this would depend on the type, scale, duration, and severity of disruption. Program Operations Disruption to these facilities by threat or attack will be dealt with utilizing the Seminole County Terrorism Annex. In other situations the responsible agency would coordinate with emergency management. Responders Depending on the size of the disruption,this may cause an interruption of emergency radio traffic in the event of a communications failure. COOP There may be some impact to COOP Plan if communication is disrupted. If so, alternate methods would be used to coordinate the appropriate response. Property/Facilities/ Facilities near the affected areas may have to shut down. Infrastructure Properties may have to undergo decontamination, and infrastructure at a regional level could be severely affected if 19 28 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) shut down. Public Confidence in the High confidence in jurisdictional response will be partially Jurisdiction's Governance dependent on a timely recovery. Risk Reduction Through Mitigation Types of Critical Infrastructure Disruption mitigation projects in the county include • Amateur Radio/ Ham • Analogue back-up systems • Backup generator and other alternate power sources for critical facilities • Building codes and enforcement • Crime Prevention through Environmental Design • Emergency public information and warning systems • Public education/outreach • Retrofit of network hardware and equipment for alternate 9- 1-1 communications centers • Security dates, barricades, and electronic surveillance • Underground electrical and structural retrofit Plans Continuity of Operations Plan Points of Distribution Plan 20 29 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Hazard: Cyber Security/Cyber Attack Probability of Occurrence 1-5 Years Risk 71% Relative Risk High Description Over the past decade, the nation as a whole has seen an increase in cyber-attack; defined as any offensive maneuver employed by individuals or whole organizations that target computer information systems, infrastructure and/or networks, by means of malicious acts to either steal, alter, or destroy a specified target. Seminole County's Office of Emergency Management and Seminole County's Information Services Department strive to ensure the safety and security of the technical infrastructure within the County. In doing so, threat analyses are completed to note vulnerabilities in the system and develop corrective actions to mitigate these attacks in the Seminole County Information Security Policy. The Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) has reported over $5.52 billion in monetary value was lost in 2017 alone. To prevent this crime, laws have been enacted, specifically, the Cybercrime Prevention Act of 2012. The focus in the future will be to ensure that Seminole County Information Services in partnership with various public safety agencies conduct annual exercises and monitor the current threat levels of cyber-attack for county information technology infrastructure. Location Not specific to any geographic areas of Seminole County Significant Occurrences The nation as a whole has been affected by various cyber- attacks, especially credit card fraud. In 2017, the Internet Crime Complaint Center(IC3) reported over$5.52 billion in monetary value lost. A cyber security threat would physically affect less than 25%of Seminole County, but could have county-wide effects. Overall Vulnerability The overall vulnerability of Seminole County and its jurisdictions to cyber security threats is high. Targets include any individual, household, business, house of worship, or government agency. Even with protection programs and awareness campaigns, all jurisdictions of Seminole County are highly likely to receive cyber-attacks including malware, phishing, and other hacking. Countywide systems and data could potentially be compromised by cyber-attacks,which makes protecting these systems a high 21 30 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) priority. Impacts/Consequences Human High impact- potential for physical harm to the public as a result of cyber-attack on medical and other critical facilities. Property Medium impact- physical damage to property is possible through cyber-attack of critical facilities and infrastructure. Environment Low impact- potential for impact depending on the nature of the attack. Economic High impact- Depending on the nature of the threat, financial transactions and other economic processes could be heavily impacted. Program Operations Could have a high impact on program operations if data or vital systems are compromised. Responders Low impact to those responding to a cyber security threat. COOP Low impact to COOP, depending on target of attack. This may cause the relocation of a particular service if severe enough. Property/Facilities/ Information technology infrastructure could be stressed or shut Infrastructure down, but otherwise there is a low risk to property and facilities. Public Confidence in the Public confidence will depend on the timeliness of restoration of Jurisdiction's Governance lost services or data. Risk Reduction Through Mitigation Cyber Attack mitigation strategies include • Anti-phishing education • Back-up systems/off-site storage • Cyber insurance for critical infrastructures • Cyber response team • Cyber security assessments • Enhanced cyber security training • Firewalls and testing environments • Intelligence gathering for new cyber threats • Mutual aid for cyber services • Public education/outreach Plans Seminole County Cyber Security Procedures 22 31 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) What is happening in the threat landscape-The challenges of keeping up with a perpetually evolving cyber security environment. North ° IN - . - . - - �1Ifo � ap ��pio . � $0fabusiness of organizations say data theft and cybercrime of security execs er enterprises are the greatest threats are concerned about cloud have difficulty rinding the rank to their reputation and mobile security security skills they need Cyber attacks 1 Terrorist attacks 2 Mobile melware is affecting , Asset bubble 3 Average data�G �� , breach in the 11 ■C�A tools from � Fiscal crises 4 USSt V'u' mohile devicos Failure of climate change adaptation 5 V.5million 45 vendors ti,Sll-oc:Exc�Uv�Opini_n ur,.�;2u�, vel-rld C u, •n sic F_,rum °`•'°°�•°'°�'°'°' ,x,,,,,�,„ �,x�.�,,,e,m, „m o,,,,„a,,,pes w n Source:Executive Opinion Survey 2017,World Economic Forum Source:2015 IBM Cyber Security Intelligence Index 23 32 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Hazard: Disease and Pandemic Outbreak Probability of Occurrence 1-5 Years Risk 57% Relative Risk Medium Description The Department of Health is the lead agency if an outbreak occurs. The Florida Department of Health-Seminole County (ESF-8 Health/ Medical) has been training employees on their duties to include epidemiology surveillance, public outreach, distribution of pharmaceuticals, and tracking the trends of possible outbreaks throughout the country and world. The Department of Health has plans in place, including: the use of the Strategic National Stockpile, how to identify the outbreak, and how to determine the particular diseases. A Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) has been signed with Seminole County Government and the School Board on the use of the schools as Points of Dispensing. These facilities would be used if a major distribution of pharmaceuticals was required to prevent the spread of a disease or assist persons if an outbreak has already occurred. Previous events in Seminole County have caused the activation of specific operational plans to respond to outbreaks of various diseases and bacteria. Location All of Seminole County Significant Occurrences Hepatitis C: yearly cases averaging 300 patients. Influenza: Reported every other year averaging 40 cases. Salmonellosis: averaging over 100 reported cases per year. (2009): H5N1 and H7N9 Avian flu reported 141 cases. (2015): Seminole County experienced significant occurrences of diseases such as H3N2, Influenza, Hepatitis A, Measles, and Zika. (2019): 2,034 cases of Hepatitis A virus as of June 2019. Florida Surgeon General declared a public health emergency in August 2019. Spatial Extent - Depending on the severity, a disease outbreak could affect more than 50%, and most likely the entire county. Overall Vulnerability Seminole County's overall vulnerability to disease and pandemic is medium.The people of Seminole County are highly vulnerable to the spread of disease due to the population size and proximity to tourist hotspots with travelers from all over the country and the world.Through training, public education, and patient tracking, first response agencies work to reduce the overall vulnerability to the spread of diseases. All jurisdictions in the county are similarly vulnerable to the effects of diseases. Impacts/Consequences 24 33 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Human High impact— Hepatitis A—Stomach pain, nausea and vomiting,jaundice, diarrhea, pale or clay colored stool, and can stay on surfaces up to 30 days. Hepatitis C- Long term effects of cirrhosis of the liver and death. Influenza -Airborne viral spread contamination. Insignificant rate of death, although possible for people with associated health risks, elderly and children. Salmonellosis -Sickness with symptoms vomiting, diarrhea and fever. If not treated may lead to death. Zika-fever, rash,joint pain, red eyes. Property Low Impact -Temporarily or permanently closing down restaurants,grocery stores and other small businesses/food related industries if disease is harmful enough. Environment Likely low impact, unless the disease affected certain animal populations. Economic High Impact—May slow down business and economic activity in an area affected by the disease due to workers missing work (sickness), temporary business closures, hospital resources/space usage and limited interaction between people due to quarantine and fear of exposure. Program Operations The Department of Health is the lead agency in an event. The County would make use of the Strategic National Stockpile, and use the County's schools as a point of dispensing of pharmaceuticals. A hospital's capacity may be impacted depending on size and severity of event. Responders Heightened stress on medical personnel and may require higher level of personal protective equipment (PPE). COOP Low impact to COOP Plan, unless disease spread and affected individuals involved in the response operations. Property/Facilities/ Increased stress on local hospitals with increasing patients Infrastructure related to disease, however there would likely be minimal impact to physical structures. Public Confidence in the Seminole County's response to a disease outbreak would Jurisdiction's Governance determine the public's confidence in the medical and emergency management capabilities. Risk Reduction Through Mitigation Types of Disease and Pandemic mitigation projects in the county include: • Contact tracing • Epidemiology surveillance 25 34 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) • Environmental hazardous waste disposal • Isolation/quarantine methods • Personal protective equipment &training • Public outreach from the Health Department • Vaccinations • Zoonotic disease surveillance Plans Pandemic Response Plan Epidemiology Plan 26 35 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Hazard: Drought and Water Shortage Probability of Occurrence 1-5 Years Risk 62% Relative Risk High Description A drought is noted as a period of unusually dry weather that persists long enough to cause serious problems such as crop damage and/or water supply shortages.There are four basic approaches to measuring drought (Wilhite, 1985): Meteorological-defined usually on the basis of the degree of dryness (in comparison to some "normal" or average amount) and the duration of the dry period. Agricultural-drought to agricultural impacts, focusing on precipitation shortages, differences between actual and potential evapotranspiration, soil water deficits, reduced groundwater or reservoir levels. Hydrological-associated with the effects of periods of precipitation (including snowfall) shortfalls on surface or subsurface water supply(i.e., streamflow, reservoir and lake levels, groundwater). Socioeconomic-associated with the supply and demand of some economic good with elements of meteorological, hydrological, and agricultural drought. The severity of the drought depends upon the degree of moisture deficiency, the duration, and the size of the affected area. In the past, most of Central Florida has suffered from droughts to the extent that unnecessary water usage has been curtailed by legislation. This curtailment, imposed by local governments and the St. Johns Water Management District was accomplished by water use restriction during designated hours and alternate days. Many natural hazards can arise from the effects of drought. Historically, drought in Florida has been known to contribute to wildfires, sinkholes, and major water shortages between the months of November-April. One of the major bodies of water providing a water source for much of our crops and agriculture territory in Seminole County is the St.Johns River. During long periods of drought, a disruption in the watering cycle can have potentially damaging effects, including substantial crop loss in the northwestern portion of the unincorporated county and city of Lake Mary. In addition to the crop loss and livestock reductions, drought in Seminole 27 36 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) County is associated with an increase in wildfire threat which in turn, places both human and wildlife populations at a higher risk. Extent Between DO—Abnormally Dry and D4—Exceptional Drought (Drought Severity Classification) Location All of Seminole County could be affected by drought Significant Occurrences (2012):The 2 month period of April and May of 2012, reached highest level of drought with portions of the state under a D-4 Drought Exceptional condition. (2015): During early July through September 2015, D-3 conditions were reported. (2017): May 2017, a major portion of the state displayed D-3 conditions. (2018): March 2018, Seminole County was under a burn ban due to dry conditions. (2019):June 2019, Seminole was under a burn ban for one week due to dry conditions and increased fire risk. Spatial Extent -A drought would affect more than 50%, and most likely the entire county. Overall Vulnerability Overall vulnerability to drought or water shortage in Seminole County and its jurisdictions is high. During the dry months of the year, drought can cause serious consequences and have compounding effects.Tactics such as water usage restrictions are implemented to save water. Drought or water shortage would have a similar level of vulnerability in all jurisdictions of Seminole County. Impacts/Consequences Human Moderate Impact- may require water use restrictions,which could cause stress to agricultural production. Increase in heat-related illness including dehydration. Vulnerable populations (infants, children, elderly, and pets) may require more attention within all jurisdictions of Seminole County. Property Low Impact- Heat-sensitive components may be compromised. Environment Low Impact-A reduction in ground water supplies creates a situation conducive to sinkholes, most commonly in the east and west unincorporated county areas, and the cities of Altamonte Springs and Oviedo; however, effects can be felt in any 28 37 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) jurisdiction. Non-domesticated animals will be directly impacted, flora may die off, increased fire risk as well as likelihood of soil quality degradation. The Local Mitigation Strategy recognizes that with a changing climate, there is the potential for an increasing risk of environmental impacts from drought and water shortages and that future mitigation and adaptation strategies related to this hazard should be considered. Economic Moderate Impact-Agribusiness, public utilities, and other industries reliant upon water for production or services. Program Operations Prolonged drought periods may require suspension of services. Responders Prolonged exposure to severe conditions, overexertion required by job will increase risk of heat-related illness. COOP Low impact to COOP Plan from a drought or water shortage incident because no major disruptions are associated with it. Property/Facilities/ Low impact -Heat-sensitive components may be compromised. Infrastructure Public Confidence in the The response of various utilities,water resource managers, and Jurisdiction's Governance emergency management would be subject to the public's approval. Risk Reduction Through Mitigation Types of Drought and Water Shortage mitigation efforts include: • Improvement in the social awareness of droughts, their effects and countermeasures • Increasing soil water retention and its availability for plants • Landscaping and plan selection for irrigation reduction • Landscape water usage restrictions • Modification of the technology of water use on farms, in fields, in catchments • Public Education/outreach • Rain barrels for landscaping/ rain water harvesting Plans Environmental Water Usage Procedures Community Wildfire Protection Plan Prescribed Burn Standard Operating Procedures 29 38 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Figure below shows scale of severity for Droughts based on the Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI): Category Description SPY D0 Abnormally dry —0.5 to —0.7 D1 Moderate drought —0.8 to —1.2 D2 Severe drought —1.3 to —1.5 D3 Extreme drought —1.5 to —1.9 D4 Exceptional drought c-2.0 Note: Source: U.S. Drought Monitor [44]. 30 39 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Hazard: Earthquakes Probability of Occurrence 10+Years Risk 16% Relative Risk Low Description An earthquake is a sudden movement of the Earth's lithosphere (its crust and upper mantle). Earthquakes are caused by the release of built-up stress within rocks along geologic faults or by the movement of magma in volcanic areas.They are usually followed by aftershocks. There are no fault lines in Seminole County, but effects of off-shore impacts could be felt if the earthquake was strong enough. Extent 0.0 Not Felt to 5.9 Moderate (Richter Scale) Location Not specific to any geographic areas of Seminole County Significant Occurrences Earthquakes have not had a major impact in Florida. Notable occurrences include: (1879):January—St. Augustine (1880):January—Cuba and Key West (2006): September 10, 2006—rare 5.9 magnitude earthquake occurred in the eastern Gulf of Mexico, and produced weak to light shaking across much of Florida, including Seminole County. There were no reported damages in Seminole County. (2014):January—Cuba and Key West Other minor occurrences are recorded with very limited damage. Spatial Extent -An earthquake would be localized and affect less than 25%of the county. Overall Vulnerability The overall vulnerability of Seminole County and its jurisdictions to earthquakes is low.While earthquakes are possible in or near Seminole County, their likelihood is low and effects would be felt equally throughout the county. Property damage would be one of the greatest losses caused by earthquakes,with little prevention activities possible for these events. All jurisdictions are similarly vulnerable to the effects of earthquakes. Impacts/Consequences Human Low Impact- Risk to health and safety from falling debris, stress 31 40 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) and fatigue are also possible if incident is severe enough. Property Low Impact -earthquakes can cause damage to property, facilities, and infrastructure but are historically rare in Seminole County. Environment Low Impact - localized consequences, but earthquakes are historically rare in Seminole County. Economic Low Impact to the overall economy of Seminole County. Businesses would be able to reopen once a building inspection was complete. Program Operations If severe enough, a moderate impact to critical facilities could occur, but earthquakes are historically rare in Seminole County. Responders There would be a risk of falling debris and impacted transportation routes. COOP Low likelihood, but moderate impact to COOP Plan in an event, and resources to continue operations may be limited (i.e. phones, Internet). Property/Facilities/ Potentially high impact, but seismic events are historically rare in Infrastructure Seminole County. Public Confidence in the Public confidence in this hazard will be directly related to the Jurisdiction's Governance County's overall response by local leaders and public safety officials. Risk Reduction Through Mitigation Types of Earthquake mitigation strategies in the county include: • Anti-fracking rules/ordinances • Hardening of infrastructure • Structural mitigation measures to improve the capacity of a building to resist seismic forces Plans No Plans The figure below shows the locations of all known earthquakes which occurred in the Florida region since 1875. The red and purple circles lie at the epicenters (e.g., on the surface) above predominantly very shallow(0-35 km) seismic foci. The yellow triangles are reported and/or located earthquakes that occurred on land in Florida prior to 1975. � -84' -82- 78' 32'. 32' �. s` kms 1 f` 0 50100- Source:University of Florida Department of Geological Sciences—Earthquakes in the Gulf of Mexico s 30' 30' I � 26- 41 p rA 26' 't4 24-1 24' Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Hazard: Extreme Heat Probability of Occurrence 1-5 Years Risk 48% Relative Risk Medium Description Heat-related deaths and illness are preventable,yet annually, many people succumb to extreme heat. According to NOAA's National Weather Service, heat is the number one weather- related killer in the United States. During 2017, 107 people died nationwide as a result of extreme heat, up from 94 fatalities in 2016.This number is also above the 10-year average for heat related fatalities, 97 (2007-2016). The National Weather Service statistical data shows that heat causes more fatalities per year than floods, hurricanes, tornadoes and lightning(individually) nationwide most years and within short-term (10-year)and long-term (30-year) averages. In 2017, nationwide mortality data revealed that most heat related fatalities occurred to people outdoors, where 48 deaths (45%) were reported.The next most dangerous place was indoors with a permanent or mobile home, likely with little or no air conditioning,where 37 deaths (35%)were reported. Extreme heat most strongly affected adults aged 50-59, 26 (24%), and 70- 79 years old, 18 deaths (17%), as well as those aged 40-49, 13 deaths (12%).Typically, seniors are the group most affected by heat. As is often the case, many more males, 73 (68%), than females, 31 (29%), were killed by heat nationwide during 2017. Temperatures that hover 9 degrees or more above the average high temperature of 90°F for the region and last for 3 or more consecutive days are defined as extreme heat.A major impact to these extreme heat events includes the monitoring of heat and drought indices for the implantation of county-wide burn bans. Public information activities are also put in place during extreme heat events that remind people of the risk of heat exhaustion. Humid or muggy conditions, which add to the discomfort of high temperatures, occur when a "dome" of high atmospheric pressure traps hazy, damp air near the ground. Excessively dry and hot conditions can provoke dust storms and low visibility. Droughts occur when a long period passes without substantial rainfall.A heat wave combined with a drought is a very dangerous situation. The highest recorded temperature for Seminole County was on June 1, 2004 at 101°F. 33 42 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Extent 3 -10 consecutive days of 99°F or higher Location Extreme Heat would affect all of Seminole County Significant Occurrences Summer heat indices can exceed 100 degrees.Two of the top ten warmest temperatures recorded: (2004):June—Reaching 101 degrees. (2016):July— Reaching 100 degrees. The Natural Resources Defense Council expects for the county to have 13.8 summer days per year of extreme heat. Spatial Extent - Extreme heat would affect more than 50%, if not the entire county. Overall Vulnerability Overall vulnerability to extreme heat is medium in Seminole County and its jurisdictions. While property is unlikely to be affected by extreme heat conditions, homeless populations are highly vulnerable to extreme heat with approximately 2,000 homeless citizens in Seminole, Orange and Osceola counties as of 2018. Extreme heat can also have a greater impacts on outside workers, and elderly and infant populations. Extreme heat would impact all of Seminole County and would have similar vulnerability levels across all jurisdictions. Impacts/Consequences Human Moderate Impact- Inside a home with little or no air conditioning is the most dangerous place to be during extreme heat. Heat related illness (exhaustion, stroke, and dehydration) can happen in any jurisdiction in Seminole County, but are more likely especially among vulnerable populations (children, elderly, and pets). Property Negligible impact to property as most infrastructure is built to withstand high temperatures seen with Central Florida's climate. Environment Low impact-A reduction in ground water supplies create a situation conducive to sinkholes, non-domesticated animals will be directly impacted, and flora may die off. The Local Mitigation Strategy recognizes that with a changing climate, there is the potential for an increasing risk of environmental impacts from extreme heat and that future mitigation and adaptation strategies related to this hazard should be considered. 34 43 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Economic Low impact- may stress local water supply demands. Program Operations There would likely be minimal impacts to operations from an extreme heat event as long as working conditions remain normal (proper A/C, etc.). Responders Prolonged exposure to severe conditions and overexertion required by job will increase heat-related illness. COOP There would likely be minimal impacts to COOP Plan and to local government as long as working conditions remain normal (proper A/C, etc.). Property/Facilities/ Negligible impact to property, facilities, and infrastructure as Infrastructure most are built to withstand high temperatures. Public Confidence in the The public confidence would be related to any response actions Jurisdiction's Governance the county takes to alleviate effects from extreme heat. Risk Reduction Through Mitigation Types of mitigation efforts that can be adopted include: • Cooling centers • Cool pavements • Cool roofs/infrastructure • Emergency public information/warning • Green infrastructure/ roofing • HVAC/Generator rules/ordinances for healthcare facilities • Increased vegetation/canopy covering • LEED certified building/construction • Public education/outreach • Rubber chipping at playground and recreational facilities • Temporary shading/tenting Plans Extreme Weather Plan Operations Annex to CEMP Figure below shows the recorded hottest days in Seminole County, according to the National Weather Service: Seminole County's Hottest Days Rank Temperature Date 1 101 6-01-2004 2 100 7-09-2016 3 100 6-14-2010 35 44 4 100 6-19-2004 5 100 5-24-1953 6 100 6-25-1952 7 100 7-06-1952 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Hazard: Financial Collapse Probability of Occurrence 10+Years Risk 27% Relative Risk Low Description A financial collapse is a devastating breakdown of the national, regional, or territorial economy. The span of time these events last could range anywhere from months to decades while the lasting effects can be seen for a long time after. In our country, there were two notable financial collapses known as the Great Depression lasting from 1929 to the early 1940s and the Great Recession lasting from December 2007 to June 2009. Location Any geographic area of Seminole County could be affected. Significant Occurrences (1929-1940s): The Great Depression (2007-2009): Great Recession - December 2007 -June 2009 Spatial Extent-Would affect more than 50% of area -a financial collapse would impact virtually the entire county's population. Overall Vulnerability The overall vulnerability of Seminole County and its jurisdictions to financial collapse is low. Keeping county funds in reserves helps to reduce the vulnerability of financial collapse however, the lack of diverse employment opportunities increases the potential losses from the collapse of one field. Impacts/Consequences Human Moderate impact on human lifestyle and living conditions due to financial collapse. Property Low Impact- potential loss of houses,vehicles, etc. due to individuals' inability to afford costs however, no physical loss to property is noted. Environment There would be no direct impact to the environment, however economic effects could indirectly affect environmental protection projects, initiatives, etc. Economic High Impact-subject to the nature of the collapse, many, if not all economic properties would be affected. Stocks, unemployment, and the ability to loan and borrow would all be impacted. Program Operations Certain operations may be slowed by an economic crisis. Responders There would likely be some minimal impacts to those dealing with financial collapse; high stress, anxiety, etc. 36 45 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) COOP May be some impact to COOP Plan-employees needed to help in the recovery may lose their jobs as a result of a financial collapse. Property/Facilities/ Physical damage not applicable, but any repairs or new Infrastructure construction needed may be impacted by a struggling economy. Public Confidence in the Public's confidence would be dependent on the ability of the Jurisdiction's Governance economy to recover in a timely manner. Risk Reduction Through Mitigation Types of mitigation measures in the county include: • Affordable work force housing alternatives • Community gardens/co-ops for feeding • County reserves • Diversifying careers/ businesses • Diversity business portfolio • Promotion of financial insurance programs • Public education/warning • Public transportation/infrastructure • Small business continuity educational programs • Sustainable development ordinances Plans No Plans Figure below shows the debt held by the Public 1940-2024(projected): Debt Held by the Public Pe at of GDP Tri!li- 120% $30 Actual Projected 100% $25 80% $20 60% $15 40% Share of GOP(left axis) $10 20% Amount(right axis) $5 OSS $0 1940 1947 1954 1961 1968 1975 1982 1989 1996 2003 2010 2017 2024 Source:Congressional Budget Office,Office of Management and Budget 37 46 CRFB.org W Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Hazard: Fires/Wildfires Probability of Occurrence 1-5 Years Risk 48% Relative Risk Medium Description A wildfire is an uncontrolled fire that begins in areas of combustible vegetation, usually the countryside or a wilderness area. Seminole County is susceptible to wildfires throughout the year, particularly during the months with minimal rainfall amounts. The major cause of brush fires and forest fires is due to residents not conforming to burning regulations in effect and not considering the conditions as they exist (dry or windy conditions). The Spring is the highest period for lightning-caused fires fueled by strong spring winds and lack of rainfall during the same period. In recent years, homes and businesses have been threatened by encroaching wildfires. Extent 41,636 high risk acres Location Unincorporated areas in the eastern part of the county, including the City of Oviedo, and western geographic areas of Seminole County, including the cities of Longwood and Altamonte Springs and unincorporated areas of Seminole County, are at highest risk for wildfires. However,wildfires could happen in any jurisdictions of the county. Significant Occurrences (1998): Summer—2,000 acres burned in Geneva, 12 residences destroyed, no fatalities or injuries, about$1.1 million in losses. (2013): February—wildfire in Wekiva State Preserve consumed 50 acres near Markham Woods, closing of nearby roadways. (2017): March—Geneva Brush Fire surrounding 338 single family homes and 14 mobile homes, shelter opened. (2017): April—Level 3 activation for brush fire at Live Oak Reserve, 150 mandatory evacuees, shelter opened. Spatial Extent - Impact less than 25%of the area within Seminole County, though the effects of smoke could cover a slightly larger area. Overall Vulnerability Overall vulnerability to fires and wildfires is medium.Wildfires can happen quickly and cause widespread damage. With several areas indicated as urban wildland interfaces, rural northwestern and eastern parts of unincorporated Seminole County are more vulnerable to wildfires. Impacts/Consequences 38 47 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Human Moderate Impact- has potential to kill or injure people trapped in burning buildings. For immediate area, smoke that decreases air quality may exacerbate respiratory problems, and those with special needs may require more attention. Property Moderate Impact-Can damage or destroy buildings including homes and businesses. Environment Extensive impact to wildlife and vegetation in any jurisdiction where wildfire may occur. For example, 2,000 acres were burned in the 1998 fire in the unincorporated area of Geneva. The Local Mitigation Strategy recognizes that with a changing climate, there is the potential for an increasing risk of environmental impacts from fires/wildfires and that future mitigation and adaptation strategies related to this hazard should be considered. Economic Moderate Impact- potential impact on agricultural industry and insurance industry. Program Operations If affected, operations may be relocated or suspended. Responders Increased exposure to smoke inhalation and high risk to health and safety of responders. COOP To continue the COOP Plan, operations may be relocated or suspended. Property/Facilities/ Moderate impact to transportation and utilities infrastructure, Infrastructure potential damage to properties. Public Confidence in the The public confidence level may depend upon the ability of the Jurisdiction's Governance county to contain and respond to the fire threat. Risk Reduction Through Mitigation Types of wild fire mitigation projects in the county include: • Burn bans • Cutting fire lines/ protective barriers • Fire resistant construction in urban/wildland interface • Fire resistant vegetation and landscaping • Fire shelter for safety of firefighters • Hazardous wildfire fuel reduction—removal,trimming, cutting • Prescribed burns • Public education (Fire Wise community)—defensible space • Urban/Wildland Interface Ordinances Plans Community Wildfire Protection Plan Prescribed Burning Standard Operating Guideline 39 48 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Hazard: Flooding Probability of Occurrence 1-5 Years Risk 62% Relative Risk High Description Flooding is the covering of land by water that is not normally covered by water. It occurs when an area is inundated beyond its natural or designed ability to drain and absorb this water. Flooding is measured through a percent annual chance, or the frequency at which a certain flood level is likely to occur.The elevation at which a base flood would take place has a 1% annual chance of occurring, also known as a 100-year flood. .2% annual chance would be a 500-year flood, and areas identified as minimal flooding have less than .2%annual chance of flooding, or need further study. Locations in the minimal flooding areas can still experience flooding due to heavy rainfall. Extent Flood gages along the St.John's River and at the Little Wekiva River indicate flood levels between Action, Minor, Moderate, and Major flood stages. Minor flood impacts can start to occur at Action Stage with minimal flooding to low lying areas and parks, all the way to historic flooding in Major Stage with water covering major roads and standing water in homes. Location The areas most affected by heavy rains are located in the northeastern and eastern parts of the County along the St. John's River, Econlockhatchee River, Lake Monroe, Lake Jessup and Lake Harney in unincorporated areas, City of Oviedo, City of Winter Springs, and City of Sanford. Flood impacts are also seen in the western part of the County from the Wekiva River and Little Wekiva River in the City of Longwood and unincorporated areas. Localized flooding can also occur anywhere in the county due to heavy rainfall. More specific information on the flood hazard area can be found in the Seminole County Floodplain Management Plan, 2015. Significant Occurrences (1924): Historic flooding event (2004): Hurricanes—Charley, Frances, and Jeanne (2008):Tropical Storm Fay—Localized flooding, roadway washouts, affected over 150 homes, prompted Presidential Disaster Declaration. (2017): Hurricane Irma—major flooding event (2018): St.John's River action stage in summer of 2018— sandbag operations in localized areas Spatial Extent - Flooding could impact between 25%-50%of the 40 49 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) county's area, potentially greater in rare events. Overall Vulnerability The overall vulnerability to floods in Seminole County and its jurisdictions is high. With several large bodies of water in the county and municipalities including Lake Jesup, Lake Monroe, Lake Harney, and the St.John's River; our community is very vulnerable to flooding. Enforcing floodway restrictions and building codes reduce vulnerability however,with heavy rains caused by severe weather and tropical cyclones,flooding is possible in any jurisdiction of the county. Impacts/Consequences Human Moderate Impact- risk of loss of life and injury, displacement, and increased distress. May affect drinking water; can increase risks to health. Property High Impact- Utility outages, transportation infrastructure closures, and varying levels of damage to structures in low-lying areas. Impacts will be greatest along the St.Johns River and in unincorporated Seminole County and the cities of Sanford and Winter Springs, but can occur in any jurisdiction. Environment Increased risk of exposure to hazardous materials. Displacement of wildlife may increase public health and safety issues, and potential increased arboviral vectors such as disease- carrying mosquitos.These can occur in any jurisdiction, but will be most likely in areas of flooding where water is standing. The Local Mitigation Strategy recognizes that with a changing climate, there is the potential for an increasing risk of environmental impacts from flooding and that future mitigation and adaptation strategies related to this hazard should be considered. Economic Moderate Impact-dependent on severity of flooding, and high impact on insurance industry. Program Operations Operations may be affected or interrupted by flooding. Responders Risk to life and safety while responding to populations affected by flooding. COOP Potential impact to COOP Plan -staffing difficulties are possible (personnel unable to drive to work or attending to own family). Property/Facilities/ High Impact- Utility outages, transportation infrastructure Infrastructure closures, and varying levels of damage to structures in low-lying areas. Public Confidence in the Confidence will be shaped by the response of emergency Jurisdiction's Governance management in mitigating, preparing, and responding to a flooding event. 41 50 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Risk Reduction Through Mitigation Types of flooding mitigation projects in the county include: • Clear waterways of obstructions • Demolition of Severe Repetitive Loss properties • Design and reconstruction of improved drainage system • Designated natural lands • Elevation of structures above Base Flood Elevation • Floodplain and stream restoration • Floodplain ordinances • Installation of storm water flood control measures to prevent flooding and related damage • Low impact development • Promoting flood insurance • Public Information/outreach • Sandbaggers/sandbag jigs • Storm water system for bodies of water • Structure modifications to commercial buildings • Water retention,green space preservation, green infrastructure Plans Storm Water Clearing Operations Plan Flood Response Plan Sandbag Operations Plan Floodplain Management Plan Legend N Badles of Water A CltyHmi,s Seminole County Flood Zones Flood Zones A AE AH anford t�4 ke Mary fyJ� j� � Longwood €€�h"11 ll 1f' ' �9 Win er Springs �,� s • A amonte on g 5 ti Miles o 1 2 4 6 8 42 51 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Figure below shows the highest crest at Lake Harney,the mouth of the St.Johns River according to the Southeast River Forecast Center: Height(ft) Date 11.09 08/28/2008 10.62 10/13/1953 10.57 09/19/2017 10.10 10/01/1924 10.07 10/02/2004 9.50 09/12/2004 9.45 11/21/1994 8.83 03/01/1998 8.71 10/24/1995 8.61 09/21/2001 43 52 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Hazard: Hazardous Materials (Fixed Site and Transportation) Probability of Occurrence 1-5 Years Risk 43% Relative Risk Medium Description There are numerous hazardous materials facilities and plants throughout Seminole County. A majority of these facilities are water treatment facilities and some construction and building facilities. In addition,there are hazardous materials located in minor quantities at schools, hospitals, and some of the telecommunication facilities throughout Seminole County. Seminole County has an aggressive hazardous materials inspection and cataloging program.The information collected from the facilities is placed into a State-wide system for easy access by emergency responders. The Emergency Operations Center monitors planning and training activities, spills, chemical releases, and hazardous materials events. Seminole County would not be directly affected by a coastal oil spill;therefore, an assessment is excluded. However,the County could feel the effects from a spill during an incident affecting the Florida Power and Light facility on the St.John's River in Volusia County at Highway 17-92 near the bridge. Location North, Central and West geographic areas of Seminole County Significant Occurrences No major incidents to report, though potential exists with CSX railroads, as well as Interstate 4 and SR 417 which are used to transport hazardous materials. Spatial Extent—Any hazardous material accident would have very localized impacts, and would account for less than 25%of the county's geographic area. Overall Vulnerability Overall vulnerability of hazardous materials incidents is medium in Seminole County and its jurisdictions. While the spatial extent of these incidents would likely be low, the impacts to humans could be substantial. Having busy interstates and active railways leaves the county vulnerable to hazardous materials leaks. Having major bodies of water such as Lake Jesup, Lake Monroe, and the St.Johns River also leaves room for vulnerability because some hazardous materials may be spread through the waterways. Impacts/Consequences Human High Impact-depending on the hazardous material, there may 44 53 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) be ranging impacts to human health and safety; may require shelter-in-place. Property Low Impact-the property affected by a spill could have varying impacts depending on the type and scale of the disaster. Environment High impact to areas of highest concentration; may require specialized clean up. Economic Low Impact to financial community of impacted area. Program Operations Low impact to operations, unless rare event requiring relocation of program operations. Responders Protective actions required for responders such as proper PPE, depending on the hazardous materials. COOP Low impact- Unless directly impacted operations center, this hazard poses very little threat to COOP Plan. Property/Facilities/ Most likely low impact, but depending on nature and severity of Infrastructure event, there could be a larger risk to infrastructure, etc. Public Confidence in the The public's confidence would be related to the ability of the Jurisdiction's Governance county to respond appropriately and contain the situation. Risk Reduction Through Mitigation Mitigation projects for hazardous materials include: • Air monitoring equipment • Containment equipment/ logistics • Convert gas chlorination system to liquid chlorine system • Develop proactive hazardous materials response plan • Emergency Public Information and Warning • Hazardous Materials storage ordinance • Hazardous Materials team training and exercises • Public Education/outreach Plans Hazardous Materials Standard Operating Guidelines Figure below shows the Hazardous Materials Sites in Seminole County(June, 2019 Source: GIS Division): }}},� HAZARDOUS MATERIALS • SEMINOLE COUNTY,FLORIDA sourw•rga.nel 45 54 SLV 0 1 2 d Miles � �•w Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Hazard: Mass Gatherings/ Planned Events Probability of Occurrence 1-5 Years Risk 38% Relative Risk Medium Description There are numerous special events in Seminole County that bring over 10,000 persons together in one venue. Of these, the largest event is the annual "Red Hot and Boom" celebration in the City of Altamonte Springs. This event draws more than 150,000 people to enjoy the Independence Day celebration. In addition to "Red Hot and Boom",the City of Sanford's Fort Mellon Independence Day Celebration, Winter Springs, and Oviedo events have significant numbers of people on July 4th. Other special events are normally located in the various parks and recreational centers throughout Seminole County. The largest of the non-government sponsored events is the Scottish Highland Games Festival. Thousands of people come to Seminole County to visit the parks during these events. Location No particular geographic area of Seminole County Significant Occurrences "Red, Hot, and Boom" 4th of July Celebration in Altamonte Springs brings over 150,000 people. City of Sanford's Fort Mellon, Winter Springs and Oviedo fireworks together equal roughly 150,000. The Scottish Highland Games is the second largest event in Seminole County with over 20,000 attending each of the three days. The ECNL Boys and Girls Soccer League Tournament in December brings in over 100 teams from around the Nation. Spatial Extent -These events are localized and would affect less than 25%of the county Overall Vulnerability The overall vulnerability of mass gatherings or planned events is medium. Even with specialized equipment, teams and training for these type of events, mass gatherings continue to be vulnerable targets. First responders work to reduce the vulnerability of large events by implementing security checkpoints,vehicle barricades and other safety measures. Buildings, infrastructure, and systems within Seminole County are not very vulnerable to violent acts. Although large events take place in all jurisdictions of Seminole County, the cities of Altamonte Springs and Sanford may be more vulnerable to attacks due to their large number of outside public events. Impacts/Consequences 46 55 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Human Moderate Impact-With large amounts of people, general injuries are more likely, civil disturbances more likely, increased traffic and accident risk. Property Negligible impact- Influx of people may overtax local resources if not prepared however, no impact to the physical property is expected. Environment Negligible impact-this human-caused hazard would likely not have an impact on local environment. Economic Low Impact- increased demand of local resources, food, water, etc. Program Operations If gathering near center of operations, large gatherings could lead to disruption in operations in affected areas. Responders May experience increased calls of service, potentially dealing with heavy traffic and slowing response time. COOP If gathering near center of operations, large gatherings could lead to disruption to the COOP in affected areas. Property/Facilities/ Influx of people may overtax local facilities, roads, and Infrastructure resources, if not prepared. Public Confidence in the How the County responds with security and response to any Jurisdiction's Governance emergency may determine the public's confidence. Risk Reduction Through Mitigation Mitigation projects for mass gatherings include: • Air monitoring equipment • CCTV/ Mesh Camera networks • Drone detection equipment/technology • Electronic signage/Variable message boards • Incident Action Plan training • Metal detector/check points • Public Education/outreach • Radiological detectors • Special event ordinance/ rules • Vehicle barricades for high populated areas Plans Permitting Procedures Fusion Center Threat Assessment Bulletin Incident Action Plans 47 56 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Hazard: Mass Migration/ Repatriation Probability of Occurrence 10+Years Risk 10% Relative Risk Low Description Pockets of migrant workers in Seminole County remain very low. These workers are drawn from the local work force and migrants, if any, are transported into the area on a daily basis to work in the farmlands of Seminole County. Location No particular geographic areas in Seminole County. Significant Occurrences (2010):January—Operation Haiti Relief after an earthquake brought displaced and some injured people through Orlando Sanford International Airport. (2017): Hurricane Maria—mass migration of evacuees from the island of Puerto Rico to the Central Florida area after the hurricane. Over 250 families resettled in Seminole County and over 6,500 in Central Florida. Spatial Extent -this hazard would affect less than 25%of the geographical area Overall Vulnerability The overall vulnerability of mass migration and repatriation in Seminole County and its jurisdictions is low. While lack of housing and community resources could be a concern with mass migration, due to the low probability and lack of physical impacts, Seminole County is not very vulnerable to this hazard. While it's possible people migrating the county may choose a more urban area to move to, each jurisdictions is equally vulnerable to this possibility. Impacts/Consequences Human Low Impact- Possible increases in crime rate, civil disturbances may increase. Property Negligible Impact- mass migration would have little to no impact on physical property. Environment Low Impact- Massive increase in population could strain the environment. Economic Low impact- increase demands of deliverable goods and increased crime in affected areas could affect local economy. Program Operations Increased population could lead to civil unrest which may affect operations. Responders Could be increased calls to service and need for additional personnel to handle influx of population. 48 57 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) COOP Civil unrest could lead to disruption to COOP Plan in affected areas. Property/ Facilities/ Depending on type and scale of event, some local facilities and Infrastructure infrastructure could be stressed or overtaxed. Public Confidence in the The coordination of services provided and assimilation of Jurisdiction's Governance migrants may affect confidence of the public. Risk Reduction Through Mitigation Potential mitigation projects include: • Affordable workforce housing • Diverse employment/career development • Homeless sheltering—expansion/services • Public Education/outreach • Sheltering mitigation/ retrofit Plans Repatriation Annex to CEMP Figure below shows migration estimates inside the United States: By the end Df this century,86% of areas with an urban center of 4attle 10,0u0,plus pco pie are projected to he affected in sonic way by 2510,000 people net utikrotion caused by sea- could leave the San Boston leve]rise Francisco,clalrLand, + and Hayward areas New York Chicago 8 '.,=t migration,rnausuicis San Francisco Ptnrar 01, -450-300 �50 50, 200 45,7 Texas coup Atlanta,Sandy Lo nearly S SpnngS and t- addltionana� RasrvetCs r e s idents under papulation could this Scenario. grow 3213.000, � m Figure below shows the Atlanta � F crld,}reSidkriTS.NP increase in Cuban 1R prgectedtomigrateaway From the Miami,Fort „ Tampa A Lauderdale,west Palm Beach migration, primarily to 1 area under the l-Smsea Florida: Warm Le As.risescenarin Guardian graphnc.Source.kature climate change,Mathew E.Hauer Number of Cubans entering the US.on the rise T%TLmberor Cubans entering theLr.5.;by fascatyear 60K_ __..................................- ___........ 50 ....__ _........ 40 ........................................................................................................................................................... 3,0 ........................................................................................................................................................... 2,0 ........................................................................................................................................... 10 .................. .... .... .................................................. .... .... ..... .... .. 49 58 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 "14 °15 '16 Note:Fisca I yea n sfa rt in October.only i ncl udes entriesat parts ofentry. source:U.S.Customs a nd Border Protection a nd U.S.0epa rtmentof Hamela ndSecurigr, Yearbookof lmmigra tion Smtisri cs. PEW RESEARCH CENTER Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Hazard: Severe Weather (Hail, Lightning, Micro-Bursts, Thunderstorms) Probability of Occurrence 1-5 Years Risk 57% Relative Risk Medium Description Severe weather is defined as any meteorological event that poses a risk to life, property, social disruption, and/or requires the intervention of authorities. Hail: Hail is a form of solid precipitation consisting of balls or irregular lumps of ice .5 millimeters or larger that form during certain thunderstorm conditions. Hail Extent: 2.5in -tennis ball (NOAA Hail Conversions) (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Lightning: Lightning is the electrostatic discharge of atmospheric electricity, characterized by flashes that can travel within a thundercloud, between clouds, or from a cloud to the surface of the earth; lightning is usually accompanied by audible thunder. Lightning Extent: 17+flashes/sq km/yr (Cloud to Ground flash Density) (NWS, 2019) Micro-burst: A micro-burst is a violent, short-lived, localized column of sinking air caused by an intense downdraft, creating extreme wind shears at lower altitudes; usually associated with thunderstorms. A micro-burst can present wind gust/bursts between 50-70mph but can reach as high at 115mph. Micro-burst Extent: 90mph wind gusts Thunderstorms:Thunderstorms are formed by the convection behavior of unstable air mass layers,which result in the meteorological effects of wind, heavy rainfall, lightning and thunder, and sometimes hail. Extent Hail: Small hail up to 2.5"—Tennis ball (NOAA Hail Conversions) Lightning: Direct strike, 2 fatalities, 25 injuries Micro-burst: Up to 90mph wind gusts Thunderstorms: Tornadoes (EF1- EF3), Flooding Rain (15" in 24hrs, 18.5" in 48hrs, 20.2" in 72hrs) Location Severe weather may take place in any geographic region of Seminole County. Significant Occurrences (1992): March 6—A severe thunderstorm moved southeast across southwestern Seminole County producing hail the size of 50 59 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) golf balls, damages around $300,000. (2011): March 30-31—Winter Park storms caused widespread power outages, fallen trees, road flooding, and damage to homes. (2013):July 27—Micro-burst near Sanford Airport-one slightly damaged building, carts blown across property. (2018): October 8—Severe wind and thunderstorms caused boat to capsize on Lake Monroe carrying two men, one deceased and the other sent to hospital. Spatial Extent—This hazard could impact greater than 50%of the county and in extreme cases cause county-wide effects. Overall Vulnerability Vulnerability to severe weather is medium due to its frequency in nature combined with our ability to monitor and predict when severe weather will impact Seminole County and its jurisdictions.While severe weather can have damaging effects on people and property, widespread awareness and lead time before storms reduces our overall vulnerability to its effects. Vulnerability to severe weather is consistent throughout all jurisdictions. Impacts/Consequences Human Moderate Impact- Potential for minimal loss of life and injuries, and would likely impact all jurisdictions within Seminole County. May require shelter operations, potential impact on mental and physical health. Property Moderate Impact-can cause utility outages and potentially major damage to buildings from wind, fires caused by lightning, and potential threat to aviation property. Environment Low Impact-environmental tolerances can be overwhelmed by hazards associated with severe weather. Debris and hazardous materials could be released into the environment. The Local Mitigation Strategy recognizes that with a changing climate, there is the potential for an increasing risk of environmental impacts from severe weather and that future mitigation and adaptation strategies related to this hazard should be considered. Economic Low Impact-depending on type of hazard and specific event, there could be damage to certain buildings, etc. Program Operations Dangerous weather conditions may cause difficulty in responders' ability to travel. Loss of power may impact system operations and or communications. 51 60 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Responders Protective actions required, PPE required for safety in addressing downed utility lines, hazardous materials, and debris. Status of responder's family may affect responder's ability to perform his/her duties. COOP Some impact to COOP-Only in extreme situations of damage would relocation be necessary; communication and utilities may be impacted. Property/Facilities/ Possible utility outages and transportation infrastructure Infrastructure closures; damage to property and buildings in general is possible in all jurisdictions within Seminole County. Public Confidence in the Residents affected by severe weather can look to local first Jurisdiction's Governance responders and insurance companies to assist with damages. OEM responds to all reported severe weather events and coordinates messaging with the National Weather Service to alert residents of pending severe weather. Risk Reduction Through Mitigation Mitigation projects for severe weather include: • Lightning Detection Warning System • Public Education/outreach • Public Information and Warning • Strengthen critical infrastructures/ retrofit • SkyWarn certification • Wind retrofit/ protection Plans Emergency Alert and Warning Systems Operations Annex to the CEMP Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan (CEMP) Figure below shows number of lightning strikes in United States (by County): Source:Vaisala 2018 Annual Lightning Report s qz r Flash Density flasheslsq kmfyeae I�lanrt up ;IT) ]] ■X9.9 UP w 12.9 1a41 l ■ BA OPb 109 l83) National Lightning Detection Network * ■ B.9apw ea c aBy ❑ 598pro e9 p3281 average flash density per county o 4oWw 59{4na 52 61 ■ 7.9 upro 49 i5t81 2018 ■ a.9�pw s9Iz1 ■ 1.0 u0 ZA{3821 VA'SALA ■up—.0 tsss) �1 Vplgllp 251$.dYl rlghla maarvaE.Far B'9pInY Purppgae anlY.any ulnar uap 18 Rmn4bima+W[Iw'Pt ppAr written aanBnnt fnfm vabala. Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Hazard: Sinkholes/ Land Subsidence Probability of Occurrence 1-5 Years Risk 43% Relative Risk Medium Description A sinkhole is a depression or hole in the ground brought about by one of the various forms of erosion beneath the earth, causing a collapse of the surface layer. Seminole County is susceptible to sinkhole and subsidence conditions because it is underlain by thick carbonate deposits that are susceptible to dissolution by circulating ground water. Florida's principal source of freshwater, ground water, moves into and out of storage in the carbonate aquifers—some of the most productive in the nation. Development of these ground water resources for municipal, industrial and agricultural water supplies creates regional ground water level declines that play a role in accelerating sinkhole formation,thereby increasing susceptibility of the aquifers to contamination from surface water drainage. Such interactions between surface-water and ground-water resources in Florida play a critical and complex role in the long-term management of water resources and ecosystems of Florida's wetlands.These conditions are monitored, but if the occurrence occurs on private property, it is the citizen's responsibility to repair the damage. If the condition exists on public property, the designated public works department will take control of the situation. Extent Average size: 3-4 ft. wide and 4-5 ft. deep. Could be up to 30 ft. deep in extreme cases. Location Sinkholes could occur in any area of Seminole County, but would be small in impact area. Significant Occurrences 130 sinkholes/land subsidence in the county since 1962.They are a common, naturally occurring geological phenomenon. (2002): 50 foot wide and 30 foot deep sinkhole opened up in Sanford destroying a barn and swallowing two horses. Much of the damaged was caused by ground water filling the hole rapidly. No damage was reported to the residential structure of the home. (2012): In December, a 25 foot deep sinkhole in Lake Mary threatened a home causing the homeowners to evacuate. The City of Lake Mary deemed the home unsafe, however, the repairs to the home were covered by the homeowner's insurance with the claim totaling over$300,000. Major repairs noted were to major cracks in the structure. 53 62 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) (2014): In February, a 6 foot deep, and 5 foot wide hole on the Rock Lake Middle School in Longwood opened up causing no structural damage. Physical education classes were cancelled due to its location but the school operations were not impacted. Since then,the hole was filled with dirt and a fence erected around it to prevent further damage. (2015): In January, a land subsidence event occurred in Geneva in which firefighters rescued a dog who was 75%trapped in the hole.There was no official confirmation if the depression was actually a sinkhole, however, the dog was rescued and administered oxygen. The dog was transported to a local animal hospital and made a full recovery. (2016): In July, a sinkhole was reported by the Department of Environmental Protection in the City of Oviedo.The sinkhole was 4 feet deep and 7 feet in length.The location consists mainly of in cohesive and permeable sand. (2017): In mid-January of 2017, Seminole County Fire Department responded to a sink hole in Longwood.The sink hole was 3 feet deep with a 4 inch width and a circular shape. Spatial Extent- localized incidents that affect less than 25% of the total land mass of the county. Overall Vulnerability The overall vulnerability to sinkholes in Seminole County is medium. While sinkholes generally affect a small area of land or property, they can happen within any jurisdiction of the county and with no notice.With little to no prevention activities available, it is difficult to reduce the vulnerability of sinkholes. While sinkholes are more common in the western part of the county in Altamonte Springs and Longwood, all jurisdictions are vulnerable. Impacts/Consequences Human Low impact to the public outside of the immediate area. Risk to contaminated drinking water is possible when sinkhole encroaches on aquifer. Property Low impact overall, isolated to home or businesses affected; could be costly to repair. Environment Moderate impact to the environment; sinkholes can affect the environment by threatening water supplies by draining water from streams, lakes, and wetlands directly into the aquifer; this could affect wildlife habitats. The Local Mitigation Strategy recognizes that with a changing climate, there is the potential for an increasing risk of environmental impacts from sinkholes/land subsidence and that 54 63 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) future mitigation and adaptation strategies related to this hazard should be considered. Economic Low impact to the overall local economy; a localized sinkhole or land subsidence event would have a very limited impact on services. Program Operations There would be minimal impact to program operations due to the isolated nature of sinkholes. Responders Low impact to responders due isolated nature of sinkholes. COOP There would be minimal impact to COOP due to the isolated nature of sinkholes. Property/Facilities/ Isolated sinkholes could impact critical facilities, transportation Infrastructure infrastructure, and private property. Sinkholes/ land subsidence events can affect the infrastructure by draining unfiltered water from streams, lakes and protected wetlands into the aquifer.These impacts can be felt in any of the jurisdictions of Seminole County, but are most common in the western unincorporated areas, and the cities of Longwood and Altamonte Springs. Public Confidence in the Residents affected by sinkholes may look to first responders and Jurisdiction's Governance insurance companies for assistance. OEM may respond to reported sinkholes/land subsidence events to perform a site survey and take photos for documentation. Risk Reduction Through Mitigation Mitigation projects for sinkholes include: • Promote insurance to include sinkhole coverage • Public Education/outreach • Subsidence-proof construction design Plans Sinkhole Land Subsidence Response Operations Annex to CEMP Figure below from Florida Department of Environmental Protection—Subsidence Incident Report Map, 2018: „ u 0 c <U 55 64 Oviedo O ,.�, :0, o aarx Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Hazard: Terrorism (Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, Explosive) Probability of Occurrence 6-10 Years Risk 41% Relative Risk Medium Description State and local governments have primary responsibility in planning for and managing the consequences of a terrorist incident using available resources in the critical hours before Federal assistance can arrive. The terrorist threat may represent Chemical, Biological, Radiological, Nuclear, Explosive (CBRNE) hazards, and/or other threats or a combination of several hazards. The initial detection of a Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) attack will likely occur at the local level by either first responders or private entities (e.g., hospitals, corporations, etc.). The detection of a terrorist incident involving covert biological agents will most likely occur through the recognition of similar symptoms or syndromes by clinical in-hospital or clinical settings. It is incumbent upon all county and municipal responders to be as well trained as possible in WMD response. The intricacies of an effective response demand the utmost cooperation among all responders, Federal, State, County and municipalities. Terrorism is a serious issue in Florida. Terrorism increases the likelihood of mass casualty and mass evacuation from a target area. For threats of armed violence, it is likely that joint jurisdictional management of the operation will take effect and will be coordinated at the county level between the Sheriff, fire/rescue,the Department of Health and FDLE. There are seven regional coordination teams throughout the State of Florida, called Regional Domestic Security Task Force (RDSTF). These consortiums evaluate vulnerabilities to the community and provide strategic plans for strengthening the homeland. In addition to the RDSTF, the Central Florida area is listed as an Urban Area Security Initiative (UASI). In 2003, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security(DHS) created the Urban Areas Security Initiative (UASI) Grant Program to support the planning, equipment, training and exercise needs of high-threat, and high-density urban areas around the country. Location No particular geographic area in Seminole County. Significant Occurrences (2016):June 12, Pulse Nightclub—The City of Orlando experienced the worst mass shooting event in the United States' history up to that date. 49 victims were killed, 53 additional were injured, and the shooter was killed. 56 65 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) A terrorist attack would most likely be very localized and isolated and impact less than 25% of the geographic area of the County, however effects could be county-wide. Overall Vulnerability Overall vulnerability to a terrorist attack is medium within Seminole County and its jurisdictions. Human and property impacts could be severe and widespread depending on the nature of the attack. Because terrorist attacks can take many forms and include many types of weapons, it is difficult to reduce the county's overall vulnerability to these incidents. First response agencies attempt to reduce vulnerability through prevention tactics and intelligence sharing. No jurisdiction in Seminole County is more vulnerable to attack than another. Impacts/Consequences Human High Impact—great potential for threat to health and safety depending on type of attack. Localized impact if explosive, but potentially wide spread effects if CBRN. Property High Impact—depending on type of attack and property targeted, there could be major, if not catastrophic localized damage. Environment Potentially high impact if CBRNE is dispersed. Aquifer system is vulnerable to intentional spill of hazardous materials. Economic High Impact—if target is financial or major commercial building or institution, impacts can be greater and more widespread; other cases could shut down industries, infrastructure, and/or the delivery of services. Program Operations If attack is in vicinity of program operations,there could be major impacts and disruption; potential relocation. Responders Potentially very dangerous and hazardous conditions. Requires proper personal protective equipment for various threats; potential for increased stress and fatigue. COOP Depending on type, scale, and specific location of event, the COOP Plan could be disrupted. Property/Facilities/ Potentially high impact to critical facilities and infrastructure Infrastructure depending on target of attack and type of threats. Public Confidence in the Public's confidence could be severely impacted by terrorist Jurisdiction's Governance attack depending on nature and scale of threat. Prevention and response are key to maintaining confidence. 57 66 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Risk Reduction Through Mitigation Mitigation projects for terrorism include: • Crime Prevention through Environmental Design • Homeland Security assessment/surveys • Intelligence surveillance systems • Public outreach/education • Security and surveillance systems for critical facilities • See Something, Say Something systems • VIPER surveillance programs Plans Terrorism Annex to CEMP 58 67 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Hazard: Tornadoes Probability of Occurrence 1-5 Years Risk 62% Relative Risk High Description A tornado is a mobile vortex of violently rotating winds, extending downward from the cloud base and advancing in front of a storm front; they are made visible by vaporized moisture and debris. Florida is the state that experiences the most number of tornadoes per square mile. Florida had an average of 55 tornadoes per year since 1961, with an average of four fatalities per year. Florida tornadoes are generally short in duration and have a narrower path. Because of the unpredictable pattern of storms and tornadoes and the relatively high reoccurrence frequency, all of the state, including Seminole County is vulnerable to damage. As the number of structures and people increase,the potential damage and injury rates increase. Mobile and modular homes, poorly constructed and substandard housing apartment complexes, and low rent housing projects are extremely susceptible to damage and destruction. Extent EF1—EF5 (Enhanced Fujita Scale) Location Tornadoes may affect any area of Seminole County. Significant Occurrences (1966): April 4—Central Florida experienced its largest tornado on record. An EF4 tornado hit Seminole County killing 11 and injuring 530 people. (1998): February 22—EF 3 tornado struck Seminole County and caused $31 million dollars in damages. This is the deadliest in recorded history through the State of Florida. (2006): November 7—Election Day tornado damaged over 30 homes and destroyed two. This tornado was in the Aloma/State Road 417 area just outside the Oviedo city limits. (2009): February 2—Ground Hog Day Tornado. While most of the damage from this event was in Lake and Volusia counties, the tornadoes sparked the discussion of tornado sirens. The City of Oviedo elected to purchase these outdoor warning devices. Seminole County elected to provide an electronic text, voice, e- mail notification system which would be called "Alert Seminole". (2009): May 19—Casselberry Tornado. An EFO tornado touched down briefly (0.8 mile track) and removed the roofs from a single family home and mobile home. Portions of the roofs and other debris were carried downstream, with large metal pieces 59 68 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) deposited in trees. Another 8 homes sustained minor damage. (2019):January 24—EFO tornado hit Sanford peaking at 85 MPH winds, property damage estimated $1.38 M Since 1966, Seminole County has been affected by a total of 28 tornado events that have caused significant damage across the county. Due to the impact to physical property,the possibility of death or injury, and the likelihood of interruption of economic services to the community, a tornado event is rated high on a threat level when compared to other hazards. Spatial Extent -Tornadoes are usually very isolated and would impact less than 25%of the geographically area of the county Overall Vulnerability The overall vulnerability of tornadoes is high, especially with the increased rate of growth within Seminole County and its jurisdictions. Increased populations causes new development and a larger impact area for tornadoes to cause damage. More densely populated areas such as Altamonte Springs and Sanford are more vulnerable than loosely populated areas such as the eastern part of unincorporated Seminole County. Buildings not built to withstand high winds are vulnerable to even the weakest of tornadoes. The Local Mitigation Strategy identifies opportunities for critical infrastructure and other buildings to be retrofitted to reduce their vulnerability to tornadoes. Impacts/Consequences Human High impact in the immediate path of the tornado. Florida has an average of 4 tornado-caused deaths per year. Likelihood or tornadoes is equal in any jurisdiction of Seminole County. Property High Impact-tornadoes have historically been known to cause a large amount of property damage. In 1998, and EF 3 tornado in Seminole County caused $31 million in damages. Property damage from a tornado is likely in any jurisdiction in which the tornado occurs, but could be more devastating in low-income areas. Environment Moderate Impact- mainly isolated in nature, but can harm or kill various plant and animals and debris and hazardous materials could be released into the environment. The Local Mitigation Strategy recognizes that with a changing climate, there is the potential for an increasing risk of environmental impacts from tornadoes and that future mitigation and adaptation strategies related to this hazard should be considered. Economic Moderate Impact-A tornado can have a large economic impact to the community. Tornado events are typically very costly to 60 69 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) recover from and can impact the ability for the community to reopen businesses. Program Operations Agencies may be forced to relocate if tornado is threatening the area. Operations could be stalled by transportation and communication barriers. Responders Immediate response can be stalled because of dangerous weather conditions; proper personal protective equipment may be needed as well. COOP Possible impact to COOP Plan. Agencies may be forced to relocate to continue essential operations as a result of the impact from tornadoes. Property/Facilities/ Tornadoes can cause massive failures in electrical, Infrastructure communications, and other critical infrastructures. Public Confidence in the Timely warning provided by local forecasters and emergency Jurisdiction's Governance management will be critical along with response and recovery efforts taken by county agencies. Risk Reduction Through Mitigation Mitigation projects for tornadoes include: • Construction hardening ordinances/ rules • Emergency/ reverse calling systems • Emergency tornado shelter • Public education/outreach • Sky Warn certification • Wind retrofitting critical infrastructures Plans Emergency Alert and Warning Systems Operations Annex to the CEMP Figure below shows NWS tornado tracks from 1950-2017 in Seminole County: 14� D 6 ti P y. Ory q' sB \/ 19 3 A y9 6 b 20M 61 q 70 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Hazard: Transportation Accident (Aircraft, Rail, Mass Casualty Incident) Probability of Occurrence 1-5 Years Risk 43% Relative Risk Medium Description Seminole County has three (3) small air strips on the east side of Seminole County in Geneva, Lake Harney area, and Chuluota capable of landing a small aircraft (i.e. Cessna). In addition, many small planes use lakes as landing and take-off locations, including Prairie Lake (Altamonte Springs), Lake Jessup (Winter Springs), and various other large bodies of water. The largest airport in Seminole County is an international airport inside the City of Sanford. The Orlando Sanford International Airport (SFB) is situated on approximately 2,000 acres in the boundaries of the City of Sanford in the northwestern section of Seminole County. The Sanford Airport Authority is responsible for the operation, maintenance, and development of the SFB airstrips. In the year 2017, the SFB statistics included 307,064 landings and takeoffs; 196 imports and 136 exports of cargo; and 2,922,446 passenger arrivals and departures. Rail systems are another major transportation method within Seminole County. The addition of the Central Florida Rail Corridor(CFRC)Transit System provides new vulnerabilities for major transportation of persons through the community. SunRail began operations in 2014 with stations in DeBary, Sanford, Lake Mary, Longwood,Altamonte Springs, Maitland, Winter Park, Florida Hospital, LYNX Central Station, Church Street, Orlando Health/Amtrak and Sand Lake Road. The SunRail became fully operational in 2016 and there are now seventeen train stations along the 61 mile CRFC Corridor.The Amtrak Auto Train takes passengers and their vehicles nonstop from Sanford, Florida to the Washington, DC area. In addition to SunRail and the Amtrak Auto Train, Amtrak provides major transportation of customers through the center portions of Seminole County. Location No particular geographic area in Seminole County. Significant Occurrences (2003): April 5 -Students and chaperones were thrown from their seats as buses slammed into one another on Interstate 4 in the City of Sanford. Of the 118 people on the three buses--94 students, 21 chaperones and 3 drivers -- half were injured.They suffered an assortment of cuts and bruises. 62 71 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Spatial Extent -accidents are very isolated in nature and would affect less than 25%of the geographical area of the county Overall Vulnerability The overall vulnerability of transportation accidents is medium within Seminole County and its jurisdictions. Humans are very vulnerable to transportation accidents especially in high traffic areas or incidents of large entities such as trains or airplanes where hundreds of lives are affected. While transportation incidents do not typically affect many physical buildings, infrastructure such as roadways and train tracks can be greatly affected or shut down completely.Jurisdictions with major highways such as 1-4 and SR417; including Altamonte Springs, Lake Mary, unincorporated Seminole County, Oviedo, Winter Springs, and Sanford are more vulnerable to transportation accidents.Jurisdictions with active rail systems including Altamonte Springs, Longwood, Lake Mary, Sanford, and unincorporated Seminole County are vulnerable to rail accidents.The City of Sanford is most vulnerable to an aircraft accident because of the location of the Orlando Sanford International Airport. Impacts/Consequences Human High Impact-depending on type of accident, major injuries and mass casualties are possible, especially with aircraft and trains. Property Low Impact-depending on nature and scale of accident, isolated property damage could occur. Environment Low Impact- any impact would be isolated in nature, unless in the extreme case a fire is started in a vulnerable wildfire area. Economic Low Impact- isolated accidents do not pose major threats to the economy, though depending on the type and scale of the accident and areas impacted, the cost to repair and recover could be expensive. Program Operations A transportation accident would have little or no impact on program operations. Responders Responders would require appropriate personal protective equipment; personnel may need support if a mass casualty incident occurs. COOP Impacts to COOP Plan would likely be minimal because the isolated nature of a transportation accident. Property/Facilities/ Isolated property and critical facilities and transportation Infrastructure infrastructure could be shut down or impacted depending on nature, scale and location of event. Public Confidence in the Public confidence is related to the overall response to a major Jurisdiction's Governance traffic accident on the part of the County's responders. 63 72 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Risk Reduction Through Mitigation Mitigation projects for transportations accidents include: • Emergency alerting systems/signage • Installation of train track safety signage • Promote insurance to residents • Public education/outreach • Use of autonomous vehicles in State of Florida Plans Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan The figure below depicts the completion of the beltway around the Orlando Metropolitan area. The Wekiva Parkway will link to State Road 429 (west beltway) and State Road 417 (east beltway) in Heathrow/Lake Mary. rr r— 1,e qpm W neer I lUGcnor�e 3pkrgs�'"' 3� L Y All •" ;11i.Park -— a� c rd Gartlan CI"-' Wa� 9 a:� .._ :.ea ��,. ➢awntown� r� wlsleanxasc 0dank Figure below shows the SunRail stations (the metro-train through the center of the Metropolitan area): lrQ Dellona oe P Q .. fake Mo"rae LakeM 9 Q9 SannMrd 0 Midway Hea,h— ,N alo9uLakes La. "ry nr�i Wekiva M ood� q9 � a eelberry -.,r ® `nYta, sn�n s o ?11�d =aa 64 73 L—kh- aldenrod QQ 417)I �r Rark s(Jsr ion Pmk PaHaiis O C) do Azalea Park o Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Hazard: Tropical Cyclones (Hurricanes and Tropical Storms) Probability of Occurrence 1-5 Years Risk 76% Relative Risk High Description A tropical cyclone is a rapidly rotating storm system characterized by a low-pressure center, strong winds, and a spiral arrangement of thunderstorms that produce heavy rain. Depending on their size, sustained wind speeds, and location they can be referred to as: Tropical Storms: A tropical storm is a tropical cyclone with an organized system of strong thunderstorms, defined surface circulation, and maximum sustained winds of 39-73 miles per hour. Storms with wind speeds below 39 mph are considered tropical depressions. Hurricanes: A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with sustained wind of forces equal to or exceeding or 74 mph, most often occurring in the Western Atlantic and usually accompanied by rain, thunder, and lightning. Hurricanes are categorized using Saffir- Simpson scale,which measures sustained wind speeds over a 1 minute average and at 33ft above the surface.The categories are: Category 1: Sustained wind speeds of 74-95 mph Category 2: Sustained wind speeds of 96-110 mph Category 3: Sustained wind speeds of 111-129 mph Category 4: Sustained wind speeds of 130-156 mph Category 5: Sustained wind speeds of 157 mph or higher Note: Categories three and above are considered major hurricanes. Extent Ranging from a Tropical Storm to the effects of a Category 5 Hurricane (Saffir-Simpson Scale) Location Because of the nature and size of these storms, they could affect any part of Seminole County and would likely impact the whole county. 65 74 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Significant Occurrences (2004): Hurricanes Charley, Frances, and Jeanne - Local State of Emergency declared, County offices and schools closed. (2005): Wilma -flooding rains, etc. (2008):Tropical Storm Fay- major flooding from torrential rains. (2016): Hurricane Matthew-tropical storm force winds and heavy rain. (2017): Hurricane Irma -damages recorded include infrastructure damage, debris, hazardous materials, flooded areas and road damage. Spatial Extent -Tropical cyclones can have far reaching effects and would impact the entire county. Overall Vulnerability The overall vulnerability of tropical cyclones is high within all jurisdictions of Seminole County.The possibility of harm to humans, high property damage, and potential infrastructure losses all combine to make tropical cyclones one of the highest threat hazards. Seminole County is vulnerable to tropical cyclones to a similar level in all jurisdictions because of the spatial extent of a hurricane or tropical storm.The Local Mitigation Strategy works to protect critical infrastructure in order to reduce the vulnerability of the community. Impacts/Consequences Human High Impact-depending on the strength of the storm, evacuations of low-lying areas and mobile/ manufactured homes may be called—in most recent storms, mandatory evacuations have been ordered for these areas. Food and water issues may arise if residents are unprepared and injuries and fatalities possible, most likely due to flooding. Property High Impact-depending on strength of the storm, structural damage to residential, commercial, industrial, and governmental buildings could be major. In Hurricane Irma, Seminole County and its jurisdictions received damage to roads, bridges, parks facilities, and water control facilities such as culverts. Environment Varied Impacts-depending on strength of the storm,trees and shrubbery could sustain major damage. Transportation of foreign debris and flooding can disrupt ecosystem services. The Local Mitigation Strategy recognizes that with a changing climate, there is the potential for an increasing risk of environmental impacts from tropical cyclones and that future mitigation and adaptation strategies related to this hazard should be considered. 66 75 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Economic High Impact- Depending on strength of the storm, low to high impacts could be felt within the path of the storm on all business sectors. Regional impacts could be greater with a catastrophic storm. Program Operations If damage to government offices occurs, relocation may be needed. Responders Difficulty responding during event due to dangerous weather conditions; staff may experience fatigue and stress during hazardous conditions, and status of responders'family may affect the responders' ability to perform his/her duties. COOP The COOP Plan may be disrupted depending on strength of storm. Property/Facilities/ High Impact-depending on strength of the storm, structural Infrastructure damage to residential, commercial, industrial, and governmental buildings could be major. Public Confidence in the The public's confidence is related to how well services are kept Jurisdiction's Governance online, proper warning information, and ability to respond to various hazards associated with tropical cyclones. Risk Reduction Through Mitigation Mitigation projects for tropical cyclones include: • Clear waterways of obstructions • Demolition of Severe Repetitive Loss properties • Electrical system— landscape clearing • Elevation of structures above Base Flood Elevation • Elimination of flooding of commercial buildings by structure modifications • Enhancements of storm water systems (grey infrastructure) • Floodplain and stream restoration • Floodplain Ordinances • Low impact development • Public Education/Outreach • Reconstruction and raising elevation of streets • Redundant power systems to critical infrastructures • SkyWarn certification • Water retention,green space preservation, green infrastructure • Wind and screen protection at shelters &critical infrastructures. Plans Comprehensive Emergency Management Plan Emergency Alert and Warning Systems Operations Annex 67 76 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) Hazard: Violent Acts (Non-Terrorism) Probability of Occurrence 1-5 Years Risk 43% Relative Risk Medium Description Acts of violence in America are a legitimate hazard to communities and municipalities across America. Since the 1990s shootings in public schools, recreational parks, movie theatres, and college campuses have increased in both frequency of incidents and number of fatalities. Violent act hazards are not concentrated to a particular region or locale. Shootings, stabbings and other violent acts can take place anywhere in the country and are highly unpredictable. Perpetrators of violent acts do not have an agenda, do not have a target group in mind and do not have a purpose or mission to be accomplished. Unlike terrorist groups, perpetrators of violent acts are not organized and are very difficult to spot because perpetrators are largely ignored or go unnoticed. Violent acts negatively impact neighborhoods and communities because shootings and fatalities occur to members of younger population demographics (ages 5 to 30). Location All of Seminole County Significant Occurrences There have been no major recent acts of violence in Seminole County, although one of the deadliest mass shooting occurred in Orlando in 2016, Pulse Night Club -49 killed, 53 wounded. Spatial Extent - Event would be highly isolated in nature and would impact less than 25%of the geographic area of the county. Overall Vulnerability The overall vulnerability of people, systems, and buildings within Seminole County and its jurisdictions is medium. Even with specialized equipment,teams and training for these type of events, soft targets and mass gatherings continue to be vulnerable targets for violent acts. First responders work to reduce the vulnerability of large events by implementing security checkpoints, vehicle barricades and other safety measures. However, violent acts can occur anywhere and with no notice. Buildings, infrastructure, and systems within Seminole County are not very vulnerable to violent acts. Although a violent act can happen anywhere, the cities of Altamonte Springs and Sanford may be more vulnerable to attacks due to 68 77 Seminole County Local Mitigation Strategy (LMS) their large number of outside public events. Impacts/Consequences Human High Impact-Violent acts can cause mass injuries/casualties depending on nature and scale of act. Mental and emotional stress can also be heightened. Property Low Impact- Non-terrorist violent acts typically do not target or impact property specifically, and if so, damage would likely be minimal. Environment Low impact-There is low probability that the environment would be impacted from a violent act unless it is an intentional fire. Economic Low Impact-any violent act would have minimal effects on local economy. Program Operations Unless an act directly impacts government personnel or buildings, the impacts would be minimal. Responders Would require necessary personal protective equipment depending on nature and scale of situation. Status of responders'family may affect the responders' ability to perform his/her duties. COOP The COOP Plan would largely be unaffected by a non-terrorist violent act, depending on the act. Property/Facilities/ Impacts would be isolated to facilities directly related to a Infrastructure violent act and some transportation infrastructure could be disrupted during response to a security threat. Public Confidence in the Public's confidence would be dependent upon the ability of the Jurisdiction's Governance County to thwart threat, respond to situation, and protect victims. Risk Reduction Through Mitigation Mitigation projects for violent acts include: • Active Shooter Drills • Active Shooter Training • Assessment and assistance programs • Bollards, metal detection equipment, paid security, security check-points, and video surveillance, at critical infrastructures • Intelligence gathering equipment/systems • Public education/outreach • School Resource officers/deputies at all public schools • Stop the Bleed Training Plans Active Shooter Response Plan Operations Annex to the CEMP Family Reunification Center Plan 69 78